Will We Have Inflation, Deflation, or Hyperinflation? (Download)

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7 comments to Will We Have Inflation, Deflation, or Hyperinflation? (Download)

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  • Jim

    Well written analysis. I am not an ecomist but can see that this piece can serve as a foundation for a much bigger work. Perhaps some contradictory points can be detailed/ explored/ explained a bit further as the life around us evolves. For example, points #16 and #17 contradict in a way that US has a history of letting banks fail and at the same time, the gov allowed to suspend mark-to-market accounting. Is there a fundamental shift away from “letting banks” fail? Did experience with Lehman Brothers change the landscape of the capitalism culture forever? What will be impact of monetizing debt (Alternative 2)?- will it destroy dollar as everyone might start moving from this currency? Many thanks Jeff and very impressive. Cheers!

  • Thanks for the compliment. I understand the seeming conflict. B/Ks are ongoing but the government is slowing the process down. This would be opposed to the Japanese tradition of avoiding b/k entirely.

  • [...] raise taxes soon because he wants to be reelected. The economy will stall for reasons I have previously discussed. That leaves inflation and he’ll do [...]

  • Gregory C. Johnson

    Outstanding analysis, thank you very much.

    WRT the cultural differences between Japan and America I am not particularly sanguine that the cultures are so different at this time. (Though, admittedly, my experience is from (mis-)spending my school days in Tokyo as opposed to adult exposure.)

    Both cultures share a ferocity, yes, and it is true Japan has a dramatically longer collectivist record, but the degree of Progressive distortion here should not be under-estimated. It seems clear to me that today Washington is largely unconstrained and entirely willing to sacrifice essential liberty for temporary safety. As with Japan, I can readily envisage America further sacrificing tomorrow for one more fix.


  • [...] fault I have explained in great detail why banks aren’t lending in previous articles (e.g., Will We Have Inflation, Deflation, or Hyperinflation?). That is, they made a ton of bad loans as the result of cheap Fed [...]

  • [...] quite differently from Keynesian and Neo-classical economists. As we have seen the Fed has been unable to stimulate money growth through zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) or through quantitative easing (QE). This is [...]