One by one, the Fed districts are reporting declining factory and industrial activity. Today the Chicago Fed reported a decline in activity, but last Friday, the ISM PMI (manufacturing) report came out negative, showing a 2.3 point decline to 56.5. It is still over the 50 level which means positive growth, but the trend looks negative:
The Dallas Fed reported today showing growth in production (+4.8) but new orders declined, -1.2. The overall index of business activity declined for Dallas, one of the most robust districts, declined to a -14.5:
The worry is that manufacturing is declining, which is one of the most significant indicators in forecasting future economic activity.
