This is just in from the OECD:
Provisional estimates show that quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the OECD area decelerated sharply to 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011, against 0.6% in the third quarter.
The OECD total masks diverging patterns however. In the United States, GDP growth accelerated to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with 0.5% in the third quarter, while in Japan GDP declined by 0.6% following the strong technical rebound (1.7%) in the third quarter. In the Euro area and the European Union, GDP also fell, by 0.3%, for the first time since the second quarter of 2009.
Within Europe, GDP fell in all major economies, with the exception of France where GDP growth slowed marginally, to 0.2% compared to 0.3% in the third quarter. In Germany and the United Kingdom GDP contracted by 0.2%. In Italy GDP contracted by 0.7 %, the second consecutive quarterly decline.
Compared with the same quarter of 2010, GDP growth was lower, at 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 in the OECD area, against 1.7% in the previous quarter. Among the Major Seven* economies, Germany recorded the highest growth rate (2.0%) and Japan the lowest (minus 1.0%).
that US GDP number in q4 was complete fiction.
they used 0.8% as a deflator.
cpi was running at 3.2%.
use that as a deflator and US gdp was only about +40bp. Q3 had a similar problem.
deflated at cpi, us real gdp has shown almost zero growth for the last 2 q’s.
this is just BEA shenanigans.
I agree completely, with Morgan! The BEA is not to be trusted…
Excellent call, Mr Harding, on your earlier thread warning about a decline in OECD output!