The Lipstick on the U.S. Stock Market May Get More Smudged; Don’t Believe It’s All Greece’s Fault

By DoctoRx, on May 15th, 2012

One of Ray Bradbury’s best-known books was “Something Wicked This Way Comes”. That’s how I’m feeling around about now.

The MSCI Asia apex index is currently down 3.5%.

Commentators at London’s Telegraph are gloomy per this representative article, Global lenders face ‘killer losses’ on Greek debt.

I spend time on a site for serious Apple analysts and investors (I am out of the stock and out of almost every stock). There is only one other tactical bear on the site to keep me company. Otherwise, the talk is of forward P/E’s and the “sound” U.S. economy. The Chinese members of this site assure me that the Chinese work so hard, there will be no loss of iPhone sales in China even if exports to Europe (China’s largest export market) take a tumble, thus slowing the growth rate of the Chinese economy.

What is it that Uncle Warren Buffett said? Be fearful when others are complacent? (Well, that’s close enough to what he actually said.)

The VIX is around 22 and could be poised to move higher.

As Jeff Harding and I have been saying for some time, the United States has not devoted itself since the 2008 maelstrom to rebuilding its savings. The media wants everyone to believe that all is well in this country, that any problems from Europe will be well-contained. We shall hope for the best but continue to be perma-realists and see what comes.

U.S. markets, including its stock markets, have been trading as safe havens from the turmoil in Europe.

Because this may be changing, and because The Daily Capitalist is not designed for active trading commentary and discussion, I am going to revive my own blog site, which I started in 2008, www.econblogreview.blogspot.com, for market commentary, with comments invited. You may wish to visit periodically or regularly. I will continue to post here as usual.

Boba Fett

May 16, 2012 at 1:49 pm

I find it odd you failed to mention silver and gold. Hopefully you didn’t drink the cool-aid liberally dispensed by other commentators on this site.

Strong dollar+declining oil $+ tanking stock market +no QE3= SLV, GLD declines.

It’s been painfully obvious for quite some time. Not to say that the golden phoenix will not rise from the ashes. You’ll just have to wait for a low 20′s/teens wash-out. I’ll buy then, but it may take a complete wash-out of the current system to give metals true legs.

Oil is likely being manipulated down for the elections (some good commentary on this at ftalphaville.com in recent weeks) despite the new Brent blend pricing structure for gasoline. Mining is energy intensive and this development alone would weaken metals.

DoctoRx

May 16, 2012 at 1:55 pm

Boba, no, didn’t avoid the metals for any special reason. I have posted on them before. Obviously they entered downtrends some time ago. The charts of GLD and SLV look very much as they did in 2008. All recessions are deflationary/disinflationary, and the metals are reflecting that, even tho everyone knows that TPTB will create more fiat at will if TSHTF or seriously threatens to do so (every once in a while we get a Lehman nonetheless). I was trying to bring out some info that not everyone knows, and presumably every reader of TDC who is also interested in markets follows the precious metals.