Apropos to what David Rosenberg was saying, below, and as we at the Daily Capitalist have been saying, personal income has been flat. The BEA released a study that showed income on a state by state basis and while income was up overall, it was really flat, which reveals a stagnating economy.
State personal income growth accelerated to 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2012, from 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose in 47 of the 50 states, fell in Kansas and Mississippi, and was unchanged in Oklahoma. The percent change across states ranged from 2.3 percent in North Dakota to –0.3 percent in Mississippi. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased to 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2012 from 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.
An 0.8% increase is not “accelerated” growth, rather it is flat. In fact it is stagnating and reflects an underlying economic weakness. Then, if you take into consideration price inflation, presently at 1.7%, then, ignoring statistical conformation, personal income actually declined in Q1 by 0.9%. As Rosenberg, a confirmed empiricist, says, we are far from recovery in terms of what past recessions have shown. He’s right.
your numbers here are bad.
0.8 is sequential but you use a yoy inflation figure and thus get a real figure with the wrong sign.
real personal income (in chained 2005 dollars) was 9466 for 4/1 up from 9441 at 3/1, 9416 at 1/1 and 9329 a year ago.
you need to check your math.