This survey from Gallup on the economic impact of Obamacare came out after the Supreme Court ruling upholding its constitutionality:
Americans are more likely to say the 2010 healthcare law upheld by the Supreme Court last week will hurt the national economy (46%) rather than help it (37%), while 18% say they don’t know or that it will have no effect.
You might guess that this is split down party lines where Republicans overwhelmingly (78%) think Obamacare will hurt the economy while Democrats think it will help the economy (62%). Independents mostly think it will hurt the economy (47%).
Gallup makes this observation:
Healthcare spending accounts for between one-sixth and one-fifth of the U.S. gross domestic product. Thus, the overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system that the Affordable Care Act provides will certainly have an effect not just on the U.S. healthcare system, but on the U.S. economy more broadly. Not even economists who study this for a living can estimate the ACA’s precise impact on the U.S. economy over the years ahead, given that the bill is huge and multifaceted, and carries with it many assumptions about cost savings and how the healthcare system will react to its provisions. Additionally, while some of the law’s provisions have gone into effect, the majority of them have yet to be implemented, providing no real-world empirical evidence on its full economic impact.
I think I can safely say that this takeover will be a negative for the economy as inefficiencies built into a politically-run system assert themselves over time. As with all of these programs, expenses will be higher than projected, demand for services will increase, shortages and long delivery times will arise, rationing and cost controls will emerge, medical innovation will decline, and taxes to support it will increase. Eventually as taxpayers rebel against higher taxes, more market-based solutions and reforms will emerge to rescue the system. Rigidities built into such systems will reduce the quality of medical care over time.
After all, why should we be any different than all the other similar state-run health care systems?