Obama Wins Election!

This is what I see on the day before the election. Romney simply hasn’t got the electoral votes to wins unless the polls are completely wrong. Yes, they have been wrong in the past, but both Pew and Rasmussen, the most reliable pollsters, put Obama ahead. The result will be the “same ole’” thing: Republicans hold the House, Dems the Senate and the presidency.

Obamacare will be fully implemented, government spending will increase, conservatives will lose control of the Supreme Court, and more stimulus will be the order of the day. We can hope at best for gridlock. I trust that Obama will withdraw from Afghanistan (a good thing) and not start any new wars. A new Fed chairman will be appointed, probably worse than Bernanke (Larry Summers, Austan Goolsby??) which will assure a depreciating dollar, and probably the start of more than “modest” price inflation. Think about hard assets, commodities, exporters, food producers, energy producers as investment opportunities.

I hope I am wrong. Dewey Defeats Truman.

UPDATE November 6, 2012  From RealClear Politics:

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16 comments to Obama Wins Election!

  • Hans

    M.R., wins by 54 to 46. <—- 1 to 3% by fraud

    Repubcos win control of worthless Senate and add to the House Camber.. More Repubco governors +3; as well as control of additional state houses…

    Atlanta Falcons wins the Corporate Bowl…

  • Hans

    “90% Chance of Obama Win; Three Things Romney Needs to Win; Election Night Coverage With Mish on National Syndicated Radio”

    Mish Shedlock be wrong….

  • Bond

    “Obamacare will be fully implemented, government spending will increase, conservatives will lose control of the Supreme Court”

    There is no evidence that Romney will differ from the policies of Obama or George Bush. How you can support either of these repulsive options is beyond me. Since Roberts upheld Obama care I’m not sure what you’re hoping for. Oh yeah, govt spending dropped under Bush?? Republicans are more fiscally reckless than democrats when in office.

    There seems to be no objectivity to your political analysis. There is only one party, the money party.

    BUSH=OBAMA=ROMNEY

    • Hans

      “There is no evidence that Romney will differ from the policies of Obama”

      Bond, how you can make this claim is beyond comprehension…

  • I.M.Skeptical

    Polling has been abysmal in the last 10 years. I can’t speak to Rasmussen or Pew, but I am “skeptical”. Recall the Wisconsin Walker recall election was supposed to be a very close election between Scott Walker and the challenger, but Walker finished with 9% lead! OOPS! How did the polls show it was a dead heat???

    Recently the CNN poll did a D+11 (over-sampled democrats by 11 points — when in 2008 at the height of Obama mania it was only D+7) which shows a 49% to 49% tie. This is absurd!

    See here:
    http://twitchy.com/2012/11/04/cnn-poll-reaches-new-heights-of-absurdity/

    Is the Rasmussen and Pew polls oversampling Democrats? If so by how much? I can seem to find any info yet.

    I have a feeling the Independents are going to tilt this election to Romney’s favor. But I could be wrong. I worry about all the accounts of voter fraud (seemingly always favoring Obama, but resolved with ‘recalibration’ of the voting machines)

    WSJ says Independents lean Romney 47% to 40%. A 7% lead is a outside any margin of error.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204755404578099141834504374.html

  • g....

    Romney will get 300 electoral votes.
    I’ll explain how I know this the day after tomorrow.

  • Colin

    Jeff the polls are wrong they assume a similar Dem turn out to the last election Romney will win 300 – 312 electoral votes

  • David Pristash

    I’ve been out going door to door campaigning for Romney in the Cleveland area for the past three months as part of a Tea Party group. We see Romney as the better of the two options and that we also know that we will need to keep on them if they stray again like they did under bush. I agree with G and Colin 300 +/- for Romney.

  • John Howard

    The election will be won by the electronic voting machines and the TV watchers will believe what they are told to believe because, most of all, they believe that faith is a virtue.

  • TF Noon

    In 1984, polls in the last week were unanimous that Reagan was going to lose.
    Reagan won 49 states.

    John Kerry was given the win based on exit polls on the day of the election in 2004.

    Polls have now become an election tool, not a gauge of true opinion.
    Nobody (neither candidate) wants a poll result that shows that the election is over and the winner is certain…and the parties have influence on what the results are – they are biased by the sample that is used.

    ROMNEY WINS.

  • JW

    >>In 1984, polls in the last week were unanimous that Reagan was going to lose.
    Reagan won 49 states.

    That’s really hard to believe. Maybe you are thinking of 1980. Reagan did not have much competition in 1984 running against Mondale.

  • Again, I hope I am wrong. But as I have said many times, there are two reasons to vote for Romney, (1) He says he will grant Obamacare waivers to states who ask for waivers which might be enough to torpedo the program; and (2) He will appoint “conservative” justices to the Supreme Court.

    Also, no pollster is infallible, but Pew and Rasmussen have been more accurate in the past. I have heard all the arguments about methodology, but at this point it appears Obama has a statistically significant advantage.

    I agree that you can’t really trust Romney because he has vacillated on his core beliefs so often that what he says isn’t reliable. I think if Obamacare is jetisoned that we may see a slightly less onerous version from a Romney Administration. I disagree with his foreign policy and defense stance. As I said before, Romney may be the lesser of two weasels but not by much.

    • dd

      Jeff is absolutely right. they are NOT the same candidate. they share many of the same qualities, the “republicrat” argument has validity.

      but the 2 places where they differ are absolutely humongous.

      i suggest those who don’t see the difference wake up.

  • D

    I have fears for the country no matter which one wins.

    Marginally I hope for Romney as business ‘uncertainty’ may decrease.

    OTOH four more years of a president like Obama, who has no economic cle what he’s doing, may finally dispell the voters to ever vote this kind of insanity again.

    Frankly, I cannot understand the liberal hare for Bush and love for Obama when the latter embodies so much (and more with the NDAA strip of our civil rights) of the policies of the former — only worse.

  • Leslie Goudy

    I hope you are wrong. We cannot spend our way out of this.

  • mitch

    spot on. refer back in 4 years with nostalgia…four more beers.