Open Letter to Hugo Salinas Price

Keith Weiner
President, Gold Standard Institute USA
Weiner (dot) Keith (at) Gmail (dot) Com

Nov 7, 2012

Re: Open Letter to Hugo Salinas Price

Dear Mr. Price:

I read your piece: “On the Use of Gold Coins as Money”.  I think you ask the right question.  This is the elephant in the room.  Why do gold and silver not circulate?

I love your analogy of the Swiss asserting that they will “allow” gold to have a monetary role, this being like “re-hydrating water.”  It is not within the power of foolish governments either to imbue water with wetness, or gold with moneyness.

Gold is already money.  It is the commodity with the tightest bid-ask spread.  It is the commodity with the highest ratio of inventories divided by annual mine production (stocks to flows).  And it is the commodity whose marginal utility does not decline.  These statements are as true for gold today as they were under the gold standard 100 years ago.

Let’s look at marginal utility.  I think you hit the nail on the head: people will pay in anything but gold, if it is possible to do so.  People prefer to keep gold, and this preference has nothing to do with the amount of gold they or anyone has.

What is the practical effect of this?  There are two things that individuals could theoretically do with their gold.  The first is that they could hoard it.  It does not produce a yield, and it does not finance production.  But if there is no other option available this is what people must do.

So long as people are taking gold from circulation to hoard it, then the circulation mechanism is broken.  An equilibrium is reached when all the gold is in private hoards.

People could also save gold.  They could buy bonds (or deposit it in a bank that will buy bonds).  The enterprises that borrow the gold will use it to finance production.  Gold will continue to circulate.

You make a very important point that is underappreciated, if not lost, in the dialog today.  A piece of paper is a promise.  A gold coin is a tangible good.  I love your analogy to the engagement ring.  If a man gives a woman a contract that says the wedding will be on such-and-such date that is not equivalent to a gold ring!

You make the case that if people have no other means of making payment, they will pay in gold and silver.  You acknowledge this could take a long time.  Let me propose another way to go forward to the gold standard.

There is one thing that will motivate people to place their gold at risk, and give up possession (temporarily).

Interest – paid in gold.

Interest can lure the gold and silver out of hoards and to the twin tasks at hand: recapitalizing the financial system and financing production.  Then it is just a matter of time.  First bondholders and then suppliers are paid in gold.  Gold begins to circulate.

If one has a gold income then one is free to accept gold liabilities, such as leases and employee wages.  For the first time since 1913, the monetary system would be on a good path.

But without interest, without the promise of a gain to tempt gold hoarders to part with their metal, they will, as you say, find any alternative currency with which to pay.  The world will continue on its inexorable march towards permanent gold backwardation.

That is what I think you and I are both working to try to prevent!

Keith Weiner

 Keith Weiner is the founder DiamondWare, a VoIP software company, and has a PhD from Antal Fekete’s New Austrian School of Economics in Munich. He is now a trader and market analyst in precious metals and commodities. He is also president of the Gold Standard Institute USA.

© 2012 by Keith Weiner


3 comments to Open Letter to Hugo Salinas Price

  • JR

    Stocks to flows is a quantity argument, a stable quantity over time but a quantity argument nonetheless. You cannot escape that you are arguing the quantity theory of money. As a certain President of a certain Institute once said to me, “so does sand”. Sand is money?

    I argue that the constant marginal utility of gold, its ability to extinguish all debt, is given by a certain quality that gold possesses, which as far as I can tell, is shared by nothing else on this planet. I think you know what this quality is.

    The golden flywheel Keith, the regulator of quality. Real bills, redeemable in gold, the quality monetary substitute. Think about it.

    • Keith Weiner

      JR: Thanks for your comment. To clarify, the quantity theory of money (QTM) holds that the value of a unit of a currency is directly and inversely proportional to its quantity. In this view, if the gold supply doubled, then the value of an ounce of gold would be halved. The extraordinarily high stocks to flows of gold proves that this is false. If the QTM were true, then gold would have crashed until the excess, surplus inventory were worked off. Just as would be the case for wheat, copper, crude oil, etc.

      I agree, gold’s quality is unmatched by anything else.

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