Things have come to a pretty pass. The romances are going flat…
Let’s start with munis. It’s pretty simple. Two Septembers ago, I wrote a post titled Gold on Hold; The New Play May Be in Munis. This was done in the context of recession worries, and was in the context of a well-documented and [...]
As one of the few American chroniclers of the still-obscure “yotai gap” phenomenon that has been present in Japan for a number of years, I read with interest a ZH post today that discusses it without using the term (LINK). Here is a graph lifted from that post (click on chart to enlarge):
Germany’s national economic statistical repository provides an interesting set of graphs that correlate with the collapsing interest rate structure in that country. Two-year bunds now yield a negative 0.08% per year. The 10-year bund yields 1.27%, down from over 2.1% only one year ago. No wonder that with the U.S. interest rate structure so [...]
Fewer babies born per capita are pushing the U.S. toward zero population growth. This began happening in Japan around the time it moved from an era of rising prices to one of price stability or very mild deflation, despite repeated “quantitative easing” by the Bank of Japan. Bloomberg reports (LINK):
Recession Left Baby Bust as [...]
What do Chinese equities have to do with U.S. interest rates? Perhaps more than one would think. This is a multi-year chart of the Shanghai Composite (stock) Index:
Anyone who has a passing familiarity with what’s happened to U.S. interest rates the last several years can see there is a close correlation between [...]
I’m not a downer all the time. I try to go where the data leads, in a risk-averse manner. If it keeps pointing in the same direction, so be it.
When I first began writing on this website in August 2010, I argued against the prevailing gloom. Recovery Summer as predicted by the advocates of Keynesian stimulus had [...]
In an historical rarity, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index are both below where they were five years ago. In contrast, the price of gold and the price of Treasury bonds have each soared. The combination of gold rising along with silver and many other commodities while at the same time [...]
Periodically the blogosphere, as well as some of the MSM and academia, raise the question of how Japan’s government is going to avoid insolvency. Federal debt exceeds 200% of GDP and continues to rise. Until now, the solution has been for interest rates to decline, thus allowing interest costs to stay relatively stable.
The bogeyman [...]
The Telegraph (U.K.) had a terse description of JPM’s Chief Investment Office that helped crystallize my thinking:
The bank stunned Wall Street when it disclosed that a series of bets made by the CIO on the health of major companies had triggered the . The CIO’s job is to invest deposits that the bank has yet [...]
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times, it’s enemy action.
—Auric Goldfinger, quote from Goldfinger (1959)
Leaving aside Vallejo’s bankruptcy of a while ago, municipal bond investors have been hit with a rat a tat tat of three California municipal bankruptcies in short order. Stockton, Mammoth Lakes, then San Bernardino. [...]