BEA Reports 4th Quarter 2012 GDP Contracting At -0.14% Annual Rate

In their first (or “advance”) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was shrinking at a -0.14% annualized rate, over 3% worse than the 3.09% growth rate that they recorded for the prior quarter.

The contraction was driven primarily by dramatic [...]


Markit PMIs Show Changing Global Economic Trends; With Comments On Gold’s Possible Rebound

The first part of today’s post will be brief but will link you to a great deal of information.

Markit has been out today and yesterday with a vast amount of monthly economic updates.  The U.S. data is not out as of now.  Here is a LINK which gets you to the country and regional [...]


First Report of Q4 GDP Is Negative

The BEA is out with its Q4 first estimate of GDP (LINK).  I look forward to a detailed analysis from Dr. Rick Davis when he has had time to prepare one.

Here are some brief comments.  First, the BEA’s introductory summary:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor [...]


A Conversation With John Llewellyn

[John Butler's interview with John Llewellyn is interesting, but Llewellyn is not "Austrian" in his approach. This might cause many of you to squirm a bit. I recommend you first skip down to John Butler's postscript at the end of the interview and read the first paragraph or two. His analysis [...]


A Final Review of 2012 Holiday Shopping Season From CMI

On several occasions we have tried to help our readers visualize consumer behavior during the last quarter of 2012 by comparing consumer activity during the recently ended quarter with the same quarter of 2008. We chose 2008 as our comparison year because both years contain the economic distractions of a contentious presidential election — an [...]


The Year That Was 2012

As readers of the Daily Capitalist know I, as a purveyor of unconventional economic wisdom, have a different take on … well, (almost) everything. I have some thoughts on the year 2012, a retrospective if you will of the really important economic issues in 2012. I and others here have written extensively about these issues [...]


European Industrial Production Has Accelerated to the Downside as It Did in the Spring of 2008

Eurostat reports that October industrial production (IP) in the euro area dropped sharply in October, and was down 6.0% in the euro-zone and 4.0% in the EU (17 and 27 countries, respectively).

Please go to the LINK and note the chart of IP since 2003.  It tracks that of the U.S. fairly closely.  It is [...]


Small Business Surveys Suggest New Downtrend Despite Incomplete Recovery From the Great Recession

The National Federation of Small Business and Gallup have recently published results of small business surveys, which are consistent with other data which are presented below.

The recent trend has worsened according to several different sources.  Conditions had never improved to levels seen in prior business expansions, but the recently-reported sales and profits data have [...]


More Hints That QE Will Not Be Unwound Any Time Soon; Implications May Continue To Be Bullish For Treasury Bond Prices

The Fed is hinting that quantitative easing is here to stay:  there may be no unwinding of its expanding balance sheet in 2015. reports (LINK):

A decision by the Federal Reserve to expand its bond buying next week is likely to prompt policy makers to rewrite their 18-month old blueprint for an exit from record [...]


BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate To 2.67%

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 2.67% annualized rate, an upward revision of +0.65% from the previously published first estimate for the quarter.

The improved headline number came exclusively from two sources: substantial [...]


Recent Data Do Not Point to an Imminent Economic Upturn

In a recent post, I demonstrated that there is a large amount of optimism amongst many Keynesians.  The general consensus was that if only the Fed could be allowed to perform more quantitative easing and thus allow the “fiscal cliff” issues to be deferred to yet a later date, the U.S. economy is something like [...]