It's Supposed to Work Part II: Housing, Consumer Confidence, and Banks

This was a big day for economic reports and the Case Shiller Q4 report, the Consumer Confidence Index, and the FDIC Q4 report came out with not-so-surprising results. Since I am occasionally accused of cherry-picking negative data, I wish to point out that the following is a report and analysis of the data as it [...]

Dear Econophile: Advice For the Economic-lorn

I get a number of e-mails from readers seeking advice, usually investment advice. I politely advise them that I do not give investment advice. Last year I received messages of a theme that can be described as folks who felt The Great Collapse was happening. Armageddon and that type of thing.

Here is some correspondence I [...]

Nothing Is As It Seems: Factory Orders and Unemployment

By Jeff Harding.

Everyone is pleased with the employment numbers that just came out today. Also, industrial production showed an increase. These numbers would indicate that we are well on our way to recovery, and I hope that is true. Many economists have hailed these reports as a clear sign that we are well on the [...]

Q3 GDP: Proceed At Risk

By Jeff Harding.

The Commerce Department announced Thursday that GDP grew 3.5% in Q3 2009. This is the “Third Quarter Bump” I had been expecting.

Economists and the news media are jumping on the “It’s Over!” bandwagon. Their conclusion is based on the premise that government spending (“stimulus”) will actually create real economic growth. It won’t and never [...]