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TM@DB Research EMU Divergence Markets and journalists are discussing (once again) the one-size-fits-all problem of ECB policy, with the Bundesbank questioning the generous provision of liquidity and its reignition of the exit debate pouring oil into the fire. Yes, the economic paths for the peripherals are severely uphill, but reforms being implemented should allow for [...] The Germans, who along with the French took the lead last decade in violating the Maastricht Treaty’s limitations on fiscal deficits for eurozone member states, are uniting to reject pleas from advocates of loose monetary and fiscal policy in Europe (allegedly to “save” improvident debtor nations). In doing so, they are looking not to Keynes [...] This white paper by Tom Mayer, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank Group, discusses a serious problem underlying the EMU. It seems that this problem is not easily solvable and threatens to wreck the entire euro system. Basically it comes down to the fact that the PIIGS’ central banks owe Germany’s Bundesbank [...] Research notes from Deutsche Bank’s Tom Mayer. Global risks dampening RMB outlook December 5, 2011 China is not immune to the current global turmoil. The cut in the reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps to 20.5% for big banks marks the first explicit easing move in 3 years. Furthermore, in October the People’s Bank of [...] EMU heading for recession EMU GDP expanded by 0.2% (1.4% YoY) in Q3. Germany (0.5%) and France (0.4%) showed decent growth, while Spain stagnated and the Netherlands (-0.3%) and Portugal (-0.4%) contracted. Not only sentiment indicators but indicators such as the PMI and industrial and consumer confidence are falling rapidly. The same holds true for [...] Greece: Papademos heads new government November 14, 2011 Former ECB vice-president Lucas Papademos has finally been chosen to head a Greek interim government which was sworn in on Friday. According to the local press, representatives of the two largest parties, PASOK and Nea Dimokratia (ND), will hold key positions in the new government. The EU [...] Back in August 2009 I made a bet that Germany would recover before the US because they were doing far less stimulus than were we. In fact Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “The crisis did not take place because we were spending too little but because we were spending too much to create growth that [...] The recent G20 meeting in Toronto came out with a joint statement endorsing “balanced and sustainable” growth for its members. It was one of those statements that are created by committees to placate all participants and don’t really amount to anything. In this case, no meaningful agreements came out of the G20 meetings. Each government [...] By Jeff Harding. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a center-right party, with its political ally, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) won the Bundestag (lower house) elections. This has far-reaching implications for Germany. And, I think I’ll win my bet about which country comes out best in this economic crash. In August I predicted Germany would [...] |
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