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Time for a brief bit of snark about the housing sector and housing stocks due to my contrarian reaction to the very recent bullish call on housing and housing stocks from Goldman. First, a trip briefly down Memory Lane to provide context: From The Street.com about a bearish call Goldman made six months ago, Stay [...] If you really want to understand what is going on in the housing market, look no farther than banks’ loan loss reserves. In fact, look no farther than Citigroup: Citigroup is standing firm against releasing loan loss reserves on its mortgage portfolio because of the overhang of foreclosures that have yet to hit the market. The banking [...] Yesterday’s S&P Case Shiller housing report tracked the continuing decline in housing prices: … all three headline composites ended the first quarter of 2012 at new post-crisis lows. The national composite fell by 2.0% in the first quarter of 2012 and was down 1.9% versus the first quarter of 2011. The 10- and 20-City Composites [...] Mortgage rates hit, well, according to these data, the bottom. At 3.83%, these rates haven’t been seen, ever: The Freddie Mac survey showed the 30-year, FRM averaged 3.83% for the week ending Thursday — the lowest rate ever recorded — inching down from the prior week’s record average of 3.84%. Last year at this time, [...] The stock market “knows”: housing is back. The old rule of thumb about housing stocks was that they should be bought at or below book value in a downturn and sold at twice book after a boom. Of course, when they peaked way back in summer 2005, some were at triple book. Citigroup’s housewares analyst [...] This article comes from Stan Humphries at Zillow Real Estate Research. There are a lot of schemes to bailout homeowners who have negative equity (some 15 million homeowners). This article examines the problem and the size of the problem, and the futility of the task. — JH Universal Mortgage Principal Reduction: Who’s Going to [...] The Case-Shiller home price index for January, 2012 came out today showing monthly (0.8%) and yearly (3.9% and 3.8%) home price decreases in its 10- and 20-city indices: Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed annual declines of 3.9% and 3.8% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively. Both composites saw price declines of 0.8% [...] Long-time readers will recall the Glass Pavilion (see photos), an extravagant Modernist house in my little town. It came on the market at the wrong time, June of 2010, for $35,000,000. They are having a fire sale and the house must be sold: The rumor is that the developer ran out of financing, but I [...] It would not surprise anyone that home prices are still falling, perhaps less, but they are still declining. The Case Shiller report for November 30, 2011 showed: Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed declines of 1.3% for both the 10- and 20-City Composites in November over October. For a second consecutive [...] Consider this an addendum to my article yesterday on residential and commercial real estate. CoreLogic puts the shadow inventory at 1.6 million units: Shadow inventory is: CoreLogic estimates the current stock of properties in the shadow inventory, also known as pending supply, by calculating the number of distressed properties not currently listed on multiple [...] |
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