Boeing’s Downbeat 2013 Earnings and Revenue Forecast Is Met With A Rising Share Price: More Evidence That Mr. Market Is In His Manic Phase

Boeing is out with Q4 earnings this AM.  It offered guidance for earnings for 2013, assuming the problems with the 787 Dreamliner are resolved in a reasonable time frame.  Projected revenues for 2013 are $83.5 B, well below published analysts’ estimates of $87.9 B (note typo in LINK).  Projected earnings of $5.10 are below consensus [...]


Very Different Assets, the Russell 2000 and Muni Bonds, Both Look Overvalued

Things have come to a pretty pass.  The romances are going flat…

Let’s start with munis.  It’s pretty simple.  Two Septembers ago, I wrote a post titled Gold on Hold; The New Play May Be in Munis.  This was done in the context of recession worries, and was in the context of a well-documented and [...]


Brief Economic and Market Update

I was so busy yesterday, I didn’t get a chance to report that having put funds into the long Japanese yen trade just two days earlier with FXY, I closed the trade out with the tiniest of profits when the U.S. stock market continued to look unstoppable for the nonce, and the correlation between U.S. [...]


Wall Street Relocates To Pamplona

The bulls are running as fast on the Street as they have ever run in Pamplona.  Nowadays, bad news has always been priced in but good news, even hints of good news, has not.  Thus it’s the opposite of early 2009.  As I think I noted almost four years ago in my blog, a sign [...]


Jeremy Grantham Finds U.S. Stocks and Bonds Equally Unattractive, Likes International; One More Move Down Left for Rates?

GMO has now made its famous 7-year asset return forecasts visible on its website; previously they would email them freely to registered recipients.  They, primarily Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder, actually have quite a good record, though past performance may not correlate with future performance.  LINK.

While there is no way for yours truly to have [...]


Some Stock Market Thoughts for 2013: U.S. Stocks Fairly Valued, Cheaper Markets Elsewhere

Will past be prologue with Value Line’s stock market predictions?  If so, if you’re interested in stocks, you perhaps can close your eyes for the next 51 weeks.  

Last March, as the Dow was surging (again) above 13,000, I noted in a post that at the very least, it appeared that stocks were ahead [...]


The Establishment’s Holiday Message To Investors: You Suffer from Post-Traumatic Stress Dysfunction If You Don’t Put Almost All Your Money In The Stock Market

Apologies for hitting an old theme, but when I saw that RealClearMarkets had picked up a article which had already caught my eye as being very strange to be its lead, it appeared comment-worthy (LINK).  Herewith, a brief screed.  The title encapsulates the source of the irritation:

Americans Miss $200 Billion Abandoning Stocks

The title [...]


What Next for the Markets?

In a recent post, I presented evidence that there is in many circles a great deal of optimism about the future for the U.S. economy.  Evidence for the extent of this optimism continues to accumulate, and not only for the U.S. reports with a headline that is a bit ironic, in that 18 months [...]


Investors Remain Optimistic in the Face of Declining Stock Market Prices

Last weekend, I said that risk assets were getting frothy, and showed that speculation was rampant in several financial sectors.  I also pointed out that essentially the entirety of the total return to investors for several years, and perhaps for several decades, might be able to be explained by the appreciation in price (decline in [...]


Some Risk Assets Getting Frothy While the Amazing Treasury Bond Bull Market Rolls On Under Most Radar Screens

I’m not a downer all the time.  I try to go where the data leads, in a risk-averse manner.  If it keeps pointing in the same direction, so be it.

When I first began writing on this website in August 2010, I argued against the prevailing gloom.  Recovery Summer as predicted by the advocates of Keynesian stimulus had [...]


2008-Type Possibilities More Prominent As France Moves Closer Toward Hard Times

AEP of the U.K.’s Telegraph shows us why Europe’s problems are now less likely to stop with Spain or even Italy.  A greater disaster than I previously feared could be hoving into view.  Here are some quotes from his latest article, Another domino falls as Hollande pushes France into depression (he is known for his apocaltypic wording):