Barron’s Replaces Henry Blodget In Pumping AMZN; Have a Taste Of the Bubbly?

Tiernan Ray, who writes the Technology Trader column for Barron’s, has a hot tip for you:  the price of a share of AMZN is going to keep moving up.  Get ‘em while you can.  In 1999 it was Henry Blodget leading the cheerleading for AMZN shortly before it both burst higher and then collapsed; now [...]


Investors Remain Optimistic in the Face of Declining Stock Market Prices

Last weekend, I said that risk assets were getting frothy, and showed that speculation was rampant in several financial sectors.  I also pointed out that essentially the entirety of the total return to investors for several years, and perhaps for several decades, might be able to be explained by the appreciation in price (decline in [...]


Hurricane Season Arrives: Still Liking Steady “Con ED”, Some Bonds and Cash

Some months ago, with the stock market averages several percent higher than they are now but the economic data much better, I described the stock market as being in a topping process.

The averages have been kept where they are, in my view, primarily because standard valuation criteria have been encouraged by both projected earnings [...]


Has Jim Cramer Been Marking Important Tech Stock Tops?

As AAPL was topping over $630 as rumors of the DOJ action in the e-books matter was leaking out, I seem to recall that the AAPL tech news aggregator site I follow also reported that Jim Cramer had the previous evening touted AAPL as something on the order of the greatest stock of our time, [...]


Smithers Updates His Stock Market Valuation Data, I Update it Further and Conclude: A Bubble May Be Forming

Momentum, liquidity, leverage, hope, etc. all move markets for variable lengths of time but ultimately value outs.  One of the fundamentalists who I follow is the economist Andrew Smithers, who compiles and updates two measures of stock market value.  He has now updated them based on Fed data through 12/13/11.  At that time, his calculation [...]


Shaming the Non-Stock Buyer

Just when one might have thought one had seen all the pro-bull market techniques used by the mass media, one finds another.  The AP is out on Yahoo’s Finance section with quite the headline:  Why Are Americans Avoiding Stocks? Ask a Shrink.  They are not quite saying people who are afraid of the stock market [...]


“The AAPL Whisperer”

The Horse Whisperer may have been a great movie, but its impact was small compared to AAPL whisperers.  Matters have now reached such an extreme level – dare I say “insane”? –  that Apple 2.0 is out today propounding $11.95 as the whisper number for tomorrow’s earnings in Our Apple whisper numbers.

I’ve always been [...]


AAPL of Investors’ i?

Despite continuing to unhappily take the “under” both for the U. S. economic consensus (e.g. Ben Benanke’s positive growth forecast) and thus for the stock averages, I can make a multi-year case for AAPL stock as having a favorable risk-reward ratio.  Here’s why.  Full disclosure:  I am long AAPL.

The major argument against AAPL has been that it has only produced a [...]


Thoughts on Today’s Market Actions

I’d like to make a few observations before out-of-town visitors take me from blogging for a few days.

On news of  ”progress” on the debt ceiling matter, the long bonds went into a major rally and the short end showed mild rate increases.  This compression of the 2-10 and 2-30 spread is consistent with the [...]