On Monday, May 14, something happened that hasn’t happened since Dec of 2008. Two successive near-month precious metals futures contracts were in backwardation at the same time. To oversimplify, backwardation is when the price of a futures contract is lower than the price in the spot market. It should not be possible for it to [...]
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The March silver futures contract first entered backwardation on Mar 9 and with a few zigs and zags has not only remained there but has gone deeper and deeper in. The April gold future just entered backwardation today. See the graph (backwardation is when (Spot (bid) – Future (offer) > 0). We shall see [...] After the near-collapse of the financial system in 2008, a growing number of people have come to realize that our monetary disease is terminal. It is that group to whom I address this paper. I sincerely hope that this group includes leaders in business, finance, and government. I do not believe that my proposal herein [...] This article commences a new regular column by Keith Wiener on gold and silver arbitrage. It is a unique and brilliant analysis of these markets. The Arbitrageur Yesterday, the December gold contract moved sharply into backwardation (it happened in silver also, but let’s focus on gold). This means that one could sell physical and simultaneously [...] JP Morgan Chase has filed a motion to get in front of the line to recover assets from bankrupt MF Global. At issue are the account holders who had cash in “segregated” accounts, of which $1.2B of this cash is now missing. One article covering this is here. Tactically, this may be a brilliant move. Our justice [...] Professor Antal Fekete has written several pieces discussing gold backwardation, and arguing that this is the red alert signal for the coming financial Armageddon, when the tower of unpayable debts collapses. In this paper, I delve deeper into this topic. My goal is to make this topic approachable by the layman and describe what I [...] |
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