Optimism, Albeit Restrained, Comes to Zero Hedge: A Sell Signal?

This bearish chart appeared on a guest post from Lance Roberts on Zero Hedge along with a surprisingly  upbeat denial of its implications (LINK).

The author says:



Some Risk Assets Getting Frothy While the Amazing Treasury Bond Bull Market Rolls On Under Most Radar Screens

I’m not a downer all the time.  I try to go where the data leads, in a risk-averse manner.  If it keeps pointing in the same direction, so be it.

When I first began writing on this website in August 2010, I argued against the prevailing gloom.  Recovery Summer as predicted by the advocates of Keynesian stimulus had [...]


DocComment: Goldman Sachs on Housing, Then and Now

Time for a brief bit of snark about the housing sector and housing stocks due to my contrarian reaction to the very recent bullish call on housing and housing stocks from Goldman.  First, a trip briefly down Memory Lane to provide context:

From The Street.com about a bearish call Goldman made six months ago, Stay [...]


Hurricane Season Arrives: Still Liking Steady “Con ED”, Some Bonds and Cash

Some months ago, with the stock market averages several percent higher than they are now but the economic data much better, I described the stock market as being in a topping process.

The averages have been kept where they are, in my view, primarily because standard valuation criteria have been encouraged by both projected earnings [...]


Economic Trends Lead Me to Continue to Accentuate the Negative

About two months ago, on April 3, I posted Reinhart and Rogoff Fight the Fed, in which I said:

…the permissive financial environment of the past few years in which the different assets of bonds, stocks, and gold all appreciate in nominal terms.  This in fact is what happened both in yesterday’s trading (and then prices [...]


The Lipstick on the U.S. Stock Market May Get More Smudged; Don’t Believe It’s All Greece’s Fault

One of Ray Bradbury’s best-known books was “Something Wicked This Way Comes”.  That’s how I’m feeling around about now.

The MSCI Asia apex index is currently down 3.5%. 

Commentators at London’s Telegraph are gloomy per this representative article, Global lenders face ‘killer losses’ on Greek debt.

I spend time on a site for serious Apple [...]


More Recessionary Market Signs

As  regular Daily Capitalist readers know, I have been observing a topping process for the U.S. stock market for a few months now.  Last fall, near the market bottom in late September, I suggested that despite their outperformance in the prior months,  tax-free municipal bonds looked pretty attractive.  That piece was titled Gold on Hold; [...]


More Signs Of a Stock Market Topping Process Emerge

Different mainstream media are reporting sentiment and technical features consistent  with a major stock market top.  As Japan can attest, bear markets and recessions can occur without central bank tightening.  We may be in a period, as was threatened in last summer’s meltdown, in which the mere lack of an active major Fed program to [...]


It’s Getting to Look a Lot Like . . . “Deflation”

I awoke on Black Friday to find one of the news reports on the Web headlining that the trend is now “extreme couponing”.  This struck me as evidence of hard times, implying excess productive capacity relative to people’s available funds, so in the spirit of the holidays, I realized that it’s getting to feel like [...]


Good News for Chocoholics as Commodities, Including Stocks, Sell Off and Worse News Is Bruited About in the MF Global Mess

With the latest commodities sell-off today, the prices of both cocoa and sugar are about 1/3 off their recent highs.  Look for that bar of the dark sweet stuff to bulk up a bit.  Silver, platinum, copper, etc. are in confirmed bear trends, and since all are more than 20% below their highs, one might [...]


Still Staying Away from Risk, with MF Global a Downside Catalyst

I’m getting back to normal posting after travel, and want to uptake my “risk off ” posture.

Regular readers know that I went 180 degrees to a “risk off” posture in early May from the aggressive risk on posture I had assumed in late August 2010, and then after the stock market hit what I [...]