This bearish chart appeared on a guest post from Lance Roberts on Zero Hedge along with a surprisingly upbeat denial of its implications (LINK).
The author says:
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I’m not a downer all the time. I try to go where the data leads, in a risk-averse manner. If it keeps pointing in the same direction, so be it. When I first began writing on this website in August 2010, I argued against the prevailing gloom. Recovery Summer as predicted by the advocates of Keynesian stimulus had [...] Time for a brief bit of snark about the housing sector and housing stocks due to my contrarian reaction to the very recent bullish call on housing and housing stocks from Goldman. First, a trip briefly down Memory Lane to provide context: From The Street.com about a bearish call Goldman made six months ago, Stay [...] Some months ago, with the stock market averages several percent higher than they are now but the economic data much better, I described the stock market as being in a topping process. The averages have been kept where they are, in my view, primarily because standard valuation criteria have been encouraged by both projected earnings [...] About two months ago, on April 3, I posted Reinhart and Rogoff Fight the Fed, in which I said: …the permissive financial environment of the past few years in which the different assets of bonds, stocks, and gold all appreciate in nominal terms. This in fact is what happened both in yesterday’s trading (and then prices [...] One of Ray Bradbury’s best-known books was “Something Wicked This Way Comes”. That’s how I’m feeling around about now. The MSCI Asia apex index is currently down 3.5%. Commentators at London’s Telegraph are gloomy per this representative article, Global lenders face ‘killer losses’ on Greek debt. I spend time on a site for serious Apple [...] As regular Daily Capitalist readers know, I have been observing a topping process for the U.S. stock market for a few months now. Last fall, near the market bottom in late September, I suggested that despite their outperformance in the prior months, tax-free municipal bonds looked pretty attractive. That piece was titled Gold on Hold; [...] Different mainstream media are reporting sentiment and technical features consistent with a major stock market top. As Japan can attest, bear markets and recessions can occur without central bank tightening. We may be in a period, as was threatened in last summer’s meltdown, in which the mere lack of an active major Fed program to [...] I awoke on Black Friday to find one of the news reports on the Web headlining that the trend is now “extreme couponing”. This struck me as evidence of hard times, implying excess productive capacity relative to people’s available funds, so in the spirit of the holidays, I realized that it’s getting to feel like [...] With the latest commodities sell-off today, the prices of both cocoa and sugar are about 1/3 off their recent highs. Look for that bar of the dark sweet stuff to bulk up a bit. Silver, platinum, copper, etc. are in confirmed bear trends, and since all are more than 20% below their highs, one might [...] |
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