Small Business Surveys Suggest New Downtrend Despite Incomplete Recovery From the Great Recession

The National Federation of Small Business and Gallup have recently published results of small business surveys, which are consistent with other data which are presented below.

The recent trend has worsened according to several different sources.  Conditions had never improved to levels seen in prior business expansions, but the recently-reported sales and profits data have [...]


Keynesians Chortle in Their Joy

Now that Ben Bernanke continues to have a friend in the White House, all’s going to be well in the world- at least economically.  At least, that’s the impression large segments of the media is promoting.  

When any segment of the media and market participants are feeling so good about things that they appear [...]


Spiking the Housing Stock Football Before Crossing the Goal Line Represents Somewhat Irrational Exuberance

The stock market “knows”:  housing is back.  The old rule of thumb about housing stocks was that they should be bought at or below book value in a downturn and sold at twice book after a boom.  Of course, when they peaked way back in summer 2005, some were at triple book.  Citigroup’s housewares analyst [...]