Case-Shiller | The Daily Capitalist

Housing Prices Continue 6 Month Decline

The Case-Shiller report on housing for March came out today reporting that prices gained 2.3% YoY, but that the trend for the last six months continued downward. Home prices decreased 3.2% in Q1 2010, and March the unadjusted prices for their 20 cities index fell another 0.5%. This decrease is noted because it occurs despite the government’s attempts to re-ignite the market with the home buyer tax credits as incentives.

All real estate is local as they say, and the declines were led by … Las Vegas. No surprise. California markets showed increases as tax credits drove sales by pulling forward future sales. Another way of saying this is that the tax credit robbed future sales for political expediency. California happens to be one of those places where people want to live and, while California is derided, its population is still growing (immigration), albeit slowly for the last couple of years. California is also home of the flipper and this business is chasing foreclosures which has created a floor under the market. Post-tax credit? It is questionable.

There are continuing factors depressing prices. As noted in the Bloomberg article: … Continue reading Housing Prices Continue 6 Month Decline

Housing Reports for February

Spin it whichever way you want, but the reports on housing from Case-Shiller and First American CoreLogic show a continued deflationary trend.

From The Wall Street Journal:

U.S. home prices in February rose from a year earlier for the first time in more than three years, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, although month-to-month declines [...]

It's Supposed to Work Part II: Housing, Consumer Confidence, and Banks

This was a big day for economic reports and the Case Shiller Q4 report, the Consumer Confidence Index, and the FDIC Q4 report came out with not-so-surprising results. Since I am occasionally accused of cherry-picking negative data, I wish to point out that the following is a report and analysis of the data as it is with hyperlinks to the sources if you wish to see the original data yourself and try to squeeze good news out of them.

Case Shiller Housing Report

Here are typical news reports on housing:

From the WSJ:

For the fourth quarter, the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 2.5% decrease from a year earlier, a significant easing from the 19%, 15% and 8.7% declines in the rest of 2009. It fell 1.1% sequentially but rose 0.3% adjusting for seasonal factors.

From Bloomberg:

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in December for a seventh consecutive month, indicating the industry at the heart of the worst recession since the 1930s is stabilizing.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index increased 0.3 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, more than anticipated and matching the gain in November, figures from the group showed today in New York. The gauge was down 3.1 percent from December 2008, the smallest decline since May 2007. …

“The rebound in the housing market since April seems to be related to” government efforts such as the homebuyer tax credit and the Fed’s purchase of mortgage-backed securities, Robert Shiller, who co-created the home-price index, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “A lot of people are coming in buying because they think the recession has just ended.”

Shiller’s comment makes a lot of sense. This is an artificially stimulated market to a great extent. While I believe that the prime driver is lower prices, when the government shuts down the home buyer tax incentives in April, the market will pick up the down trend for a while.

I was intrigued by a report from my co-reporter, Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge, who brilliantly noted a flattening in the improving rate of decline of housing prices … Continue reading It’s Supposed to Work Part II: Housing, Consumer Confidence, and Banks

Looking at the Economy Through Gray Colored Glasses

By Jeff Harding.

[Updated October 1, 2009]

I try to balance my day by reading well known optimist and pessimist economists. My two favorites are Brian Wesbury of First Trust in Chicago as my “Mr. Sunshine” and Dave Rosenberg as my “Joe Btfsplk*” (the name “Dr. Doom” was already taken by Nouriel Roubini). I [...]

Did Home Prices Go Up or Go Down?

By Jeff Harding

The S&P Case-Shiller housing report for May came out today and the Wall Street Journal and others ran this headline: “Home Prices Rise Across U.S.: Bargain Hunting, Low Rates Drive First Gain in 3 Years; Double Dip Still Possible.” Wow, that’s big news. But it didn’t sound right. Then I realized that [...]