What kind of economic theory is one in which economists look at data from a past period of time (say, one month, or two months, or …) and conclude that the next period will be the same? That is the “theory” on which almost all economics rely on. So, today, when ADP reported employment gains [...]
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Last week the markets reacted very strongly to the retail services report from the Census Bureau that said they went up 1.1%. The only problem with that conclusion is that they didn’t go up. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal [...] Retail sales are coasting along rather than bouncing along, as the latest numbers continue to show flat growth. The Census Bureau’s report today shows a 0.1% gain over the previous month. That is close to the margin of error of ±0.5%. For the year retail sales are up 8.1% (±0.7%) above June 2010. The gain, if [...] |
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