A Final Review of 2012 Holiday Shopping Season From CMI

On several occasions we have tried to help our readers visualize consumer behavior during the last quarter of 2012 by comparing consumer activity during the recently ended quarter with the same quarter of 2008. We chose 2008 as our comparison year because both years contain the economic distractions of a contentious presidential election — an [...]

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BEA Raises 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth Estimate To 2.67%

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 2.67% annualized rate, an upward revision of +0.65% from the previously published first estimate for the quarter.

The improved headline number came exclusively from two sources: substantial [...]

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A Remarkable Coincidence That The Slight GDP Uptick Resulted From Government Spending

As a follow-up on yesterday’s report on GDP from Consumer Metrics Institute, this came out today from the Mercatus Center, by Veronique de Rugy. I am sure all this “good” news was merely a coincidence. While government spending does count as “spending” it is not the same kind of spending that businesses and consumers do. [...]

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GDP Q3 2012 Report: Mixed Signals

In their first (“Advance”) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 2.02% annualized rate, some 0.76% higher than for the prior quarter and at very nearly the same level as reported for the first quarter of 2012.

[...]

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Revision Ups Q2 2012 GDP Growth … Slightly: No Real Change

In their first revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.73%, up 0.19% from their initial estimate — but still down about a quarter of a percent from the 1.97% reported for the prior quarter [...]

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Q1 GDP Report: Final BEA Obfuscation

In their third estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) left the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth unchanged at 1.88%, which is still more than a percent below the growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2011. This revision to the prior month’s report does not reflect [...]

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GDP Q1 2012 Revised Down To 1.88%

Lakewood, Colorado

In their second estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth to 1.88% (down about a third of a percent from the 2.20% previously reported), and now more than a percent below the growth rate for the fourth quarter [...]

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GDP Growth Slows To 2.2% In Q1 2012

In their “advanced” estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.2%, down more than three-quarters of a percent from the fourth quarter of 2011. The vast bulk of the downturn was in commercial activities, with both fixed investments [...]

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No Change GDP Q4 2011: Are The Numbers Believable?

In their “final” revision of their estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.97%, down a mere 0.01 percent from their last estimate for the fourth quarter and still more than a percent higher than their “final” estimate [...]

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GDP For 2011 Revised Upward to 3.0% — Is It Real?

The Daily Capitalist wishes to welcome Dr. Rick Davis, a physicist and the founder of Consumer Metrics Institute, as a new contributor. Dr. Davis publishes some of the best data on discretionary consumer spending and has developed an impressive proprietary model for a leading indicator based on consumer spending. Readers may recall our 2010 interview of him. He also [...]

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Bernanke’s End Game

I follow Rick Davis’s data from Consumer Metrics Institute and he has come out with several interesting (and proprietary) ways to analyze the economy by measuring consumer data. His latest report shows a continuing “contraction” in consumer data. He describes it as follows:

“Contraction Watch” follows [our] Daily Growth Index and compares it on a [...]

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