As I have done before on occasion, with this edition of the Amphora Report, I take a break from my usual doom and gloom and offer up an economic parable, this time for the summer holidays. I encourage interested readers to consider the morals of this story.
The Tale of Jack [...]
As with much of the euro area, the US is in a debt trap. All the politicking in DC does not change this economic fact. The federal debt is going to be devalued. Yet even now, amid a new economic slowdown, US consumer price inflation is set to remain positive following [...]
Today, yet another “unexpected” increase in initial state unemployment claism occurred. When you look at the top chart the Calculated Risk keeps (LINK), you see that the pace of decline coming off the spike peak in claims in early 2009 has continued to moderate, and it appears as though a clear uptrend has just begun [...]
Prices are falling. The Fed will interpret this as “deflation” whereas it is more related to lack of demand. They will interpret falling prices as “deflation” and view this as dangerous to the economy. Here is a summary of the PPI and Ex-Im prices indices. Tomorrow (Thursday) the CPI will come [...]
The official “inflation” numbers came in last week and they show declining prices, something that the Fed calls “deflation”. The Fed and most policy makers will panic if deflation continues and prices steadily drop. It’s a tricky thing to evaluate because much of the decline in prices has to do with [...]
The OECD just came out with its “Interim Assessment” of the major economies within the OECD (34 countries). This article amounts to what is known on the blogosphere as “chart porn” since most of the data comes in the form of … charts. Personally I think “chartocopia” is a better term. Whatever. I am going [...]
A “little” inflation will destroy capital, rob you of your savings, disrupt all of your long-term financial planning, create market instability, and leave you unprepared for retirement. You can protect yourself and you must.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their official Consumer Price Index for February on Friday (up 0.4% MoM; up 2.9% [...]
After all the hype about the great holiday season for retailers, the data just came in saying that personal consumption expenditures were actually flat for December, actually real PCE went down 0.1%. The other side of that is real disposable personal income went up 0.3%. This was being heralded by some MSM as being great because savings [...]
The Fed didn’t change any policies today, but they have really bought into the “jaw, jaw, jaw” theory of monetary policy by extending the low interest rate (ZIRP) policy out to late 2014 from their former mid-2013 target. That is, they believe if the markets rely on the Fed’s word to keep interest rates low [...]
The September Personal Income and Outlays report from the BEA came out last Friday, and according to Mish, I should be howling. More on this in a moment. But, personal income declined slightly MoM, spending was up slightly, and PCE is low. To Mish this signals deflation.
Here’s the data summary:
This article is a more fleshed out version of the one I wrote on August 18. It was written for our newspaper, the Montecito Journal. I hope you enjoy it.
The Fed’s War Against Savers
The official policy of this country is to “maintain a strong dollar.” In fact though, nothing could be further from [...]