GMO has now made its famous 7-year asset return forecasts visible on its website; previously they would email them freely to registered recipients. They, primarily Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder, actually have quite a good record, though past performance may not correlate with future performance. LINK.
While there is no way for yours truly to have [...]
When, more than 100 years ago, George Gilbert Williams, president of the famously conservative Chemical Bank, was asked for the secret of his success, he replied: “The fear of God.” You can have the fear of God or the socialisation of risk, but you cannot have both at once.
Fewer babies born per capita are pushing the U.S. toward zero population growth. This began happening in Japan around the time it moved from an era of rising prices to one of price stability or very mild deflation, despite repeated “quantitative easing” by the Bank of Japan. Bloomberg reports (LINK):
Recession Left Baby Bust as [...]
While I am an advocate of gold investments and gold money, I find that many gold bugs take rather simplistic views of gold markets, gold investments, and the economics behind it. I saw recently saw headlines from another site which thundered warnings about an immediate economic collapse or imminent hyperinflation. Many gold bug forecasters have [...]
For the third time since 2008, financial markets are pricing in a deflationary rather than inflationary future. The reasons for this are understandable. There is now strong evidence that global economic activity is slowing. The euro-area banking and sovereign debt crisis is worsening. The US is heading towards a so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ in [...]
Today, yet another “unexpected” increase in initial state unemployment claism occurred. When you look at the top chart the Calculated Risk keeps (LINK), you see that the pace of decline coming off the spike peak in claims in early 2009 has continued to moderate, and it appears as though a clear uptrend has just begun [...]
Prices are falling. The Fed will interpret this as “deflation” whereas it is more related to lack of demand. They will interpret falling prices as “deflation” and view this as dangerous to the economy. Here is a summary of the PPI and Ex-Im prices indices. Tomorrow (Thursday) the CPI will come [...]
The official “inflation” numbers came in last week and they show declining prices, something that the Fed calls “deflation”. The Fed and most policy makers will panic if deflation continues and prices steadily drop. It’s a tricky thing to evaluate because much of the decline in prices has to do with [...]
I have never been able to figure out Bill Gross of PIMCO. He pleaded for government stimulus and quantitative easing when the economy was crashing and that earned him a place on our Crony Capitalist list.
When I read his op-ed piece today in the Financial Times and his monthly letter to clients, I wonder [...]
The OECD just came out with its “Interim Assessment” of the major economies within the OECD (34 countries). This article amounts to what is known on the blogosphere as “chart porn” since most of the data comes in the form of … charts. Personally I think “chartocopia” is a better term. Whatever. I am going [...]