It is easy to become distracted by the data that comes in daily. Like the Sorcerer’s Apprentice (starring Mickey Mouse), it can overwhelm you. It can take your eyes off the “Big Picture”. This is what curses most analysts. Today’s data is so perverse that it (almost) doesn’t make sense … [...]
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The OECD just came out with its “Interim Assessment” of the major economies within the OECD (34 countries). This article amounts to what is known on the blogosphere as “chart porn” since most of the data comes in the form of … charts. Personally I think “chartocopia” is a better term. Whatever. I am going [...] I got to my pulpit late this morning to find that the Q4 2011 GDP advance numbers have already been pretty well dissected and analyzed by my fellow commentators, and they’ve got it mostly right. While there were some positive signs in the report, the report was obscured by a potential negative indicator, inventory build, [...] As a follow-up to yesterday’s post on recent data (“Ray Dalio Of Bridgewater Takes Dim View Of Economy; Concurs With Daily Capitalist“), the corollary to the ISM manufacturing report, non-manufacturing data, came in today. The ISM non-manufacturing* index for December was basically flat, unchanged from November. The non-manufacturing sector has been flat since March, 2011. [...] We believe manufacturing and general industrial output will continue to be sluggish for the near term. The Fed’s G17 report today revealed that industrial production slowed again in August by 0.2%, down from July’s 0.9% gain. On a YoY basis, industrial production was up 3.4%. Overall the manufacturing remained sluggish (up 0.5%). There were good gains in auto production [...] We have not recovered from the Great Recession and thus our current economic stagnation is less a new event than a continuation of the original collapse. The basis for the so-called “recovery” was a rise in GDP, that measure of what we have spent in the economy. It’s a fairly useless bit of data. As [...] This article discusses the current path our economy is taking. While most economists believe the Q1 GDP stumble was a temporary blip in an ongoing recovery, I believe it is the beginning of a downward trend of economic stagnation and inflation. The root of this is the Fed’s attempts to inflate [...] The weekly jobs report today said that: Fewer workers filed for initial unemployment benefits in the latest week but the data nevertheless point to risk for the April-to-March comparison. Initial claims fell 13,000 in the April 16 week to 403,000, not quite as low as expected and compared with 416,000 in the prior week (revised [...] This weeks jobless claims came in with another positive showing: down 5,000 to 382,000. The four week moving average showed a 15,000 per month decline. Continuing claims are also posting the best readings of the recovery, down 2,000 to 3.721 million in data for the March 12 week. The four-week average of 3.755 million shows [...] |
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