A Conversation With John Llewellyn

[John Butler's interview with John Llewellyn is interesting, but Llewellyn is not "Austrian" in his approach. This might cause many of you to squirm a bit. I recommend you first skip down to John Butler's postscript at the end of the interview and read the first paragraph or two. His analysis [...]


ECRI: The 2012 Recession

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came out yesterday with a defense of its much criticized recession call. As readers know I am cautious about their calls mainly because they use a “blackbox” proprietary methodology which is kept secret by them (in order to justify their high fees). But they have an extraordinary record. And [...]


The Economy Is Floating On Air

Much of what we see in recent economic growth is caused by one thing: cheap money and credit. This is obvious as we look at two important economic drivers: autos and homes. Both are significant in that they represent the two biggest purchases that most Americans will make in their lifetimes, so their dollar volume [...]


The Current Malaise: The Failure Of Stimulus

Alhambra Investment Partners’ Dr. John Chapman discusses the current malaise:

Recent data on the U.S. economy are not encouraging, and calls for a recession have risen in recent months. But there is after all a big difference between an economy growing at 1-2%, and one not growing, or shrinking, as in Europe at [...]


GDP Q1 2012 Revised Down To 1.88%

Lakewood, Colorado

In their second estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth to 1.88% (down about a third of a percent from the 2.20% previously reported), and now more than a percent below the growth rate for the fourth quarter [...]


GDP Growth Slows To 2.2% In Q1 2012

In their “advanced” estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.2%, down more than three-quarters of a percent from the fourth quarter of 2011. The vast bulk of the downturn was in commercial activities, with both fixed investments [...]


Marc Faber At His Usual Gloom And Doom

What can one say about the author of the “Gloom Boom Doom” report. This illustration comes from his web site which should give you some idea of his outlook. But I always enjoy his commentary, whether or not I agree with him.













No Change GDP Q4 2011: Are The Numbers Believable?

In their “final” revision of their estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.97%, down a mere 0.01 percent from their last estimate for the fourth quarter and still more than a percent higher than their “final” estimate [...]


IMF Urges EU To Go “Japanese”

The IMF cut its forecast for EU area economic growth for 2012 saying that their collective economies will decline by 0.5%. 

The IMF said the most immediate policy challenge is to restore confidence and put an end to the crisis in the euro area by supporting growth, while sustaining fiscal adjustment, containing deleveraging, and providing [...]


Ray Dalio Of Bridgewater Takes Dim View Of Economy; Concurs With Daily Capitalist

With all the good economic news that has been coming out in the past two weeks one may question why we at the Daily Capitalist are bucking the opinions of the claque of conventional-wisdom economists. But now it appears that we have good company: Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds at $125 billion run [...]


Goldman Forecasts Stagnation

It seems that mainstream economists are coming around to our view of economic weakness: stagnation and recession. This, from Zero Hedge: