Today’s U.S. manufacturing report is at the top of a mountain of bad economic news coming out. Whether these data will lead to a “new” recession (as defined by the NBER) remains to be seen, but at the very least the U.S. economy is stagnating, and it is likely to remain that way for some [...]
It’s not often that I can listen to three Fed presidents speak at the same venue. Yet Dennis Lockhart of Atlanta, Charles Plosser of Philadelphia, and John Williams of San Francisco descended on my town to speak at my alma mater’s annual economic forecast program. It was important enough to be covered by the Wall Street Journal and [...]
What kind of economic theory is one in which economists look at data from a past period of time (say, one month, or two months, or …) and conclude that the next period will be the same? That is the “theory” on which almost all economics rely on. So, today, when ADP reported employment gains [...]
In the wake of recent market volatility and the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting on April 24-25, calls for another round of Fed easing, ”QE3,” have again been stoked. It is worth sorting out the pros and cons of such a move for both the U.S. economy and financial markets.
An article from John Mauldin was referred to me by three people who suggested it was a must read. The article was an interview of Hoisington Investment Management economist Dr. Lacy Hunt by Kate Welling, a financial journalist, formerly with Barron’s. I don’t read Mr. Mauldin’s letters which come out frequently (they are free), nor [...]
This article is another white paper where we try to give our assessment of the economy and where it is headed. These white papers are geared more for the investment community rather than the general public, but we have found our readers to be sophisticated investors and advisers. This represents a [...]
This article is another white paper where we try to give our assessment of the economy and where it is headed. These white papers are geared more for investment professionals rather than the general public, but we have found our readers to be sophisticated folks. This represents a lot of research [...]
This morning I read a headline from Bloomberg that informed me that “Global Poll Predicts U.S. Economy Rebounding.” This came on the heels of my article yesterday, “The Worldwide Depression/Recession Of 2012.”
One of us is wrong.
I read the Bloomberg piece this morning with some amusement and frustration in that few investors or economists [...]
Aside from the chaos in the eurozone, the world’s problems are being complicated by the fact that most economies that count are slowing down. This is the result of bad economic policies that are shared worldwide by governments and societies that believe wealth can be printed, that welfare statism is everlasting, and capitalism is force [...]
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for September printed in positive numbers for the fifth consecutive month increase, in September, but the report says:
The weaknesses among the leading indicator components have become slightly more widespread in September. Moreover, the CEI suggests current economic conditions have been slow, with weak gains in all four components over the [...]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of one of my favorite books, The Black Swan, and closet Austrian theory economics student, is someone whom we should all listen to when he talks about economics. He said this at a conference in Ukraine:
… the current global market turmoil is worse than it was in 2008 because countries [...]