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UPDATE: GDP rises to 5.9% in Q4 from 5.7%! That makes me an economist. Today there was a lot of unexpected news. Unemployment claims increased by 22,000 last week and the culprit is … global warming. This was unexpected. Orders for durable goods fell 0.6%, the biggest drop since August. This was unexpected. Here is the report [...] Here is a link where you can view and download my complete “State of the Economy 2010” report as a PDF file. This is Part III of my three part series on the state of the economy going into 2010. Part II appeared yesterday, and Part I appeared on Tuesday. This weekend I will combine the three parts into one downloadable PDF. The Consequences The Impact of Deleveraging The economy is still a mess [...] This is Part II of my three part series on the state of the economy going into 2010. Part I appeared yesterday, and Part III will appear tomorrow. This weekend I will combine the three parts into one downloadable PDF. The Importance of Debt The Fed, the Obama Administration, and a [...] This is the first report of a series of 3 reports on the state of the economy as we enter 2010. Part II will appear Wednesday, and Part III will be posted on Thursday. I have been poring over current economic data, year-end reports from various sources, and current or proposed legislation. [...] It all depends on how you wish to spin the numbers. Q4 2009 GDP increased 5.7% of which 3.4% was inventory reduction. Overall for 2009 GDP went down 2.4%. My guess is that the 5.7% number will be readjusted downward when the revised numbers come out in late March (26th). What does this mean? Inventory reduction is [...] This has been a phenomenal year for the economy. There have been major, fundamental changes that will affect our lives for many years to come. I don’t see these changes as a good thing for the short or long term. These changes are generational in that they don’t occur often and they will radically impact the [...] By Jeff Harding. This blog has just recorded its 100,000th page view. In the big world of blogging that’s not that many page views, but considering that we’ve been really going for only a year–I really cranked it up in 2009–I feel pretty good about it. Our growth has been good lately and we’re are signing up [...] By Jeff Harding. I have all this vitriol stored up from not being able to publish for two weeks and it needs to be spewed. I just read Foreign Policy magazine’s “The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers,” and it is worthy of my bile. Of all the crap I have to read every day to get [...] By Jeff Harding. The Commerce Department announced Thursday that GDP grew 3.5% in Q3 2009. This is the “Third Quarter Bump” I had been expecting. Economists and the news media are jumping on the “It’s Over!” bandwagon. Their conclusion is based on the premise that government spending (“stimulus”) will actually create real economic growth. It won’t and never [...] By Jeff Harding. I get research data from McKinsey and they had this neat chart on the global housing cycle which I thought was interesting. You can see why the UK, Ireland, and Spain are in such bad shape. It seems that housing bubbles are one of our chief exports. Here are a couple of conclusions from McKinsey’s [...] By Jeff Harding. It was reported Thursday that Goldman Sachs changed their unemployment forecast for September to be 250,000 jobs lost versus their prior estimate of 200,000. They pointed to some of the data that I cited Wednesday in my article, Looking at the Economy Through Gray Colored Glasses. Folk, nothing that bad happened this week that wasn’t already a [...] By Jeff Harding. Every commentator is teasing the positives or negatives of recent data to justify his or her prognostications as to whether or not we are in a recovery. I think most forecasts are worthless because economists forecast the future by assuming what happened last week will happen next week, maybe a little better [...] By Jeff Harding Professional economists are really confused by the recent data. As I have noted, what professional economists do is make a forecast by taking a statistic and run a trend line based on it. They take data from the US government (Departments of Commerce and Labor, Census, the Fed) as well [...] By Jeff Harding This is a compilation of film clips of Ben Bernanke making various prognostications as the financial crisis unfolded and he is shown to be embarrassingly wrong. What I think you will see from this video is that Ben is just another economist who looks to the future by incrementally adjusting from past data without seeing [...] The Daily Capitalist Predicts the Future …… By Jeff Harding…….. There is an endless supply of bad news I could report but most of you who follow the daily news know much of that. I have occasionally been accused of ignoring the good news and placing an unfair emphasis on the bad news to [...] |
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