The two most interesting words coming from the media about the drop in retail sales were, “unexpected” and “unexpected.” Today’s Census Bureau report said that retail sales were down 0.5% in June, and even ex-autos, was down 0.4%. Why this should be “unexpected” reveals more about contemporary economics than anything else. After all, economists are [...]
Apropos to what David Rosenberg was saying, below, and as we at the Daily Capitalist have been saying, personal income has been flat. The BEA released a study that showed income on a state by state basis and while income was up overall, it was really flat, which reveals a stagnating economy.
State personal income [...]
The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) decreased 1.0% in May, to a seasonally adjusted level of 93.4 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index was up 2.5% in April. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) decreased 0.4% in May. Regional output rose 10.5% in May from a year earlier, [...]
The Advance Report for durable goods came out today with most MSM reporting that it was up 1.1% in May. As usual they missed the real news. Markit didn’t: “Durable Goods Orders Show Steepest Three-Month Fall For Three Years.” As they put it:
Orders for durable goods showed a surprisingly strong increase in May, but [...]
The august BIS is sounding as if it’s been reading The Daily Capitalist and at least accepting one or two of the points made here from time to time. Here are quotes from Bloomberg.com’s Central Banks Face Power Limit as Debt Persists, BIS Says:
Central banks in developed nations are confronting the limits of their ability [...]
In their second estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) lowered the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth to 1.88% (down about a third of a percent from the 2.20% previously reported), and now more than a percent below the growth rate for the fourth quarter [...]
In their “advanced” estimate of the first quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 2.2%, down more than three-quarters of a percent from the fourth quarter of 2011. The vast bulk of the downturn was in commercial activities, with both fixed investments [...]
The OECD just came out with its “Interim Assessment” of the major economies within the OECD (34 countries). This article amounts to what is known on the blogosphere as “chart porn” since most of the data comes in the form of … charts. Personally I think “chartocopia” is a better term. Whatever. I am going [...]
Before breaking for vacation, I wanted to present some current summary thoughts, mostly on macro matters.
The way I frame the major markets question is whether the oh-so-scary and volatile 2011 was a minor version of 2008, to be followed this year by a sustained melt-up as occurred in 2009, or whether the period of [...]
Do you think the economy is growing? If you are a Democrat—yes. If you are a Republican—no. This is why these polls don’t mean much. If they did then if everyone thought happy thoughts, then the economy would be OK?
Anyway, this poll from Gallup showed that now more folks think the economy is growing: