Wall Street Relocates To Pamplona

The bulls are running as fast on the Street as they have ever run in Pamplona.  Nowadays, bad news has always been priced in but good news, even hints of good news, has not.  Thus it’s the opposite of early 2009.  As I think I noted almost four years ago in my blog, a sign [...]


What Next for the Markets?

In a recent post, I presented evidence that there is in many circles a great deal of optimism about the future for the U.S. economy.  Evidence for the extent of this optimism continues to accumulate, and not only for the U.S.  Bloomberg.com reports with a headline that is a bit ironic, in that 18 months [...]


Some Risk Assets Getting Frothy While the Amazing Treasury Bond Bull Market Rolls On Under Most Radar Screens

I’m not a downer all the time.  I try to go where the data leads, in a risk-averse manner.  If it keeps pointing in the same direction, so be it.

When I first began writing on this website in August 2010, I argued against the prevailing gloom.  Recovery Summer as predicted by the advocates of Keynesian stimulus had [...]


ECRI: The 2012 Recession

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came out yesterday with a defense of its much criticized recession call. As readers know I am cautious about their calls mainly because they use a “blackbox” proprietary methodology which is kept secret by them (in order to justify their high fees). But they have an extraordinary record. And [...]


Gather Your Yield Where You May

A growing number of people “get” the message that utility stocks are today’s techs.  From Charles Hugh Smith’s blog post that was reposted on Zero Hedge yesterday titled What’s So Bad About Deflation?, he concludes:

Everyone assuming the Federal government has the power to create inflation and that inflation is “good” should examine the interests of [...]


ECRI’s Recession Call Update

This is a heads up from DoctoRx who has followed ECRI for many years. This is ECRI’s latest public statement on their recession call, a call which has been met with scepticism since it was announced. — JH

Revoking Recession: 48th Time’s the Charm?

For the last three months, year-over-year growth in [...]


More Deflation Pressures Seen

On June 28 last year, I wrote a post titled Important Battle at Four Dollar Copper.  Shortly thereafter, copper surged half a buck but then dropped by one-third to $3.  With global money-printing picking up  and hopes that only a minor European recession and mild Chinese growth slowdown would let the party resume, copper rebounded- [...]


Stocks in Extremistan As Recession Forecasts Continue

This is a long post about stocks and the economy.  I hope you find it worth the effort to read it.

If there’s any doubt about the strength of economic expansions, on trend, in the United States, in the past half-century, the linked 52-year chart from the Philly Fed  may help settle the issue:   [...]


Friday the 13th Felt Like a Market Top; ECRI Updates Its Economic Views; Might Treasurys Continue to ‘Rally-Ho’ Some More?

On the morning of this past Friday the 13th, I was greeted on my home page, Bloomberg.com, by the lead story– which was of investors cheering and captioned by the statement that good news is at hand, CEOs are now in a hiring mood.  I had an uh-oh moment in my usual contrarian way.  Was [...]


ECRI Forecasts The Coming Recession

DoctoRx’s favorite forecaster, other than the Daily Capitalist, Economic Cycle Research Institute called a “new recession” last week for its clients. According to the Doc, they have an excellent track record (see the graphic, below). Lakshman Achuthan said today:

“The U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession,” Achuthan, the group’s chief operations officer in New York, [...]


Objective Index of Economy Deteriorating; Updated Comments on Stocks and Precious Metals

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which in January of this year called for a peak in global economic growth this summer to its paying customers via its non-public Long Leading Index, does publish weekly its shorter-term predictor of economic growth, the Weekly Leading Index (WLI).

On its website, ECRI provides the historical data series [...]