The bulls are running as fast on the Street as they have ever run in Pamplona. Nowadays, bad news has always been priced in but good news, even hints of good news, has not. Thus it’s the opposite of early 2009. As I think I noted almost four years ago in my blog, a sign [...]
In a recent post, I presented evidence that there is in many circles a great deal of optimism about the future for the U.S. economy. Evidence for the extent of this optimism continues to accumulate, and not only for the U.S. Bloomberg.com reports with a headline that is a bit ironic, in that 18 months [...]
I’m not a downer all the time. I try to go where the data leads, in a risk-averse manner. If it keeps pointing in the same direction, so be it.
When I first began writing on this website in August 2010, I argued against the prevailing gloom. Recovery Summer as predicted by the advocates of Keynesian stimulus had [...]
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came out yesterday with a defense of its much criticized recession call. As readers know I am cautious about their calls mainly because they use a “blackbox” proprietary methodology which is kept secret by them (in order to justify their high fees). But they have an extraordinary record. And [...]
A growing number of people “get” the message that utility stocks are today’s techs. From Charles Hugh Smith’s blog post that was reposted on Zero Hedge yesterday titled What’s So Bad About Deflation?, he concludes:
Everyone assuming the Federal government has the power to create inflation and that inflation is “good” should examine the interests of [...]
This is a heads up from DoctoRx who has followed ECRI for many years. This is ECRI’s latest public statement on their recession call, a call which has been met with scepticism since it was announced. — JH
Revoking Recession: 48th Time’s the Charm?
For the last three months, year-over-year growth in [...]
This is a long post about stocks and the economy. I hope you find it worth the effort to read it.
If there’s any doubt about the strength of economic expansions, on trend, in the United States, in the past half-century, the linked 52-year chart from the Philly Fed may help settle the issue: [...]
On the morning of this past Friday the 13th, I was greeted on my home page, Bloomberg.com, by the lead story– which was of investors cheering and captioned by the statement that good news is at hand, CEOs are now in a hiring mood. I had an uh-oh moment in my usual contrarian way. Was [...]
DoctoRx’s favorite forecaster, other than the Daily Capitalist, Economic Cycle Research Institute called a “new recession” last week for its clients. According to the Doc, they have an excellent track record (see the graphic, below). Lakshman Achuthan said today:
“The U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession,” Achuthan, the group’s chief operations officer in New York, [...]
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which in January of this year called for a peak in global economic growth this summer to its paying customers via its non-public Long Leading Index, does publish weekly its shorter-term predictor of economic growth, the Weekly Leading Index (WLI).
On its website, ECRI provides the historical data series [...]