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The BLS has reported the employment report for November (LINK). The markets are taking this bullishly, as the jobs gains were modestly above consensus. There are flies in that ointment; the report looks mostly like a “nothingburger”. Once again, the 25-54 age groups, and sub-groups within that age range, showed no job growth year [...] While employment rose by 160,000 jobs in July, the overall unemployment rate remained at 8.3%.1 “Hurrah” is not the correct response to these data. (“Hurrah” is the response seen the most in the MSM.) First, the trends: The payrolls chart (right) reveals a largely flat trend for the past year, which says that job [...] New jobless claims continued their see-saw trend, this week heading down, slightly, to 367,000 new claims vs. 368,000 the week before. Here is the trend: Last week’s employment report was much more negative in that unemployment actually rose, if you consider the shrinking labor force because of labor dropouts–people who gave up looking. [...] After today’s miserable employment report that supports, unfortunately, the downbeat view of the economy found on this blog for some time, please look at the chart below from Yahoo’s Finance section with an open mind. This is a five-year chart of the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond. If this were a stock or commodity, then simply based on the [...] |
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