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The BEA is out with its Q4 first estimate of GDP (LINK). I look forward to a detailed analysis from Dr. Rick Davis when he has had time to prepare one. Here are some brief comments. First, the BEA’s introductory summary: Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor [...] As a follow-up on yesterday’s report on GDP from Consumer Metrics Institute, this came out today from the Mercatus Center, by Veronique de Rugy. I am sure all this “good” news was merely a coincidence. While government spending does count as “spending” it is not the same kind of spending that businesses and consumers do. [...] In their first (“Advance”) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2012 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the economy was growing at a 2.02% annualized rate, some 0.76% higher than for the prior quarter and at very nearly the same level as reported for the first quarter of 2012. [...] In their first revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.73%, up 0.19% from their initial estimate — but still down about a quarter of a percent from the 1.97% reported for the prior quarter [...] In their first estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.54%, down nearly a half percent from the (revised) 1.97% for the prior quarter and down over two and a half percent from the (revised) 4.10% growth rate [...] I got to my pulpit late this morning to find that the Q4 2011 GDP advance numbers have already been pretty well dissected and analyzed by my fellow commentators, and they’ve got it mostly right. While there were some positive signs in the report, the report was obscured by a potential negative indicator, inventory build, [...] I have written several articles on the GDP revisions, and now the “final” revision for Q3 comes, knocking it down to 1.8% from 2.0%. Recall that we started at 2.5%. The difference was mainly a downward revision in consumer spending on services (to 1.9% from 2.9%). Here is what it looks like: As I [...] Not to be overly bah-humbug-like, but from the public information out there today, it’s hard to see why stocks are being bid up today. Bloomberg reported that its Consumer Comfort Index just extended a record stay below -50, worse than in the 2008-9 “Great Recession”, which as regular readers know I do not think ever [...] The news on the latest GDP report said “recession fears recede.” Now, a few days later, it’s “red flags.” So which is it? I think it is still “red flags.” But then we have most of mainstream economists/analysts who disagree with us. The difference is that they have been mostly wrong and we have been mostly right. [...] The final calculation of Q2 GDP was +1.3%. The advance estimate was 1.3%, the second estimate was 1.0%, and the final is back to the original. The revisions had to do with the following: The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), [...] |
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