Jeremy Grantham | The Daily Capitalist

Hurricane Season Arrives: Still Liking Steady “Con ED”, Some Bonds and Cash

Some months ago, with the stock market averages several percent higher than they are now but the economic data much better, I described the stock market as being in a topping process.

The averages have been kept where they are, in my view, primarily because standard valuation criteria have been encouraged by both projected earnings [...]

Party On!

“The sea’s freezing. A man won’t last long in that. We’ve drawn a bad hand this time.”

“I’ve never been a good loser. I intend to get into a boat.”

- Conversation between two card-players on The Titanic, from Eric Ambler’s screenplay, “A Night To Remember‟.

The Titanic centenary [...]

Stocks in Extremistan As Recession Forecasts Continue

This is a long post about stocks and the economy. I hope you find it worth the effort to read it.

If there’s any doubt about the strength of economic expansions, on trend, in the United States, in the past half-century, the linked 52-year chart from the Philly Fed may help settle the issue: [...]

Dealing with Financial Repression

Given the article posted today by Econophile on the WSJ and inflation, I thought it timely to submit some quantitative considerations for anyone with savings who has to deal with interest rates on savings that are below the rate of price increases for consumer goods and services.

The WSJ writer’s view is that the authorities “should” inflate away debts. [...]

Why Bill Russell Would Be a Bear on the Stock Market Now

When Bill Russell led first his college team and then the Boston Celtics to title after title, he did it with brains as well as athletic talent. When he turned to TV commentating, one of his themes applies to the stock market now. That theme involved a team that had fallen far behind and was making a furious comeback. Russell would observe [...]

Are Stocks Finally A “Buy”?

Yes, I believe that some finally are.

This is written by someone who sold virtually all stocks at Dow 13,000 in August-September 2007 with such confidence that even when the market went up 7-8% in the fall, had no indecision and argued with friends and relatives to get out when the getting was good. Except [...]

The Newest Deflationists

Some very big hitters are talking about deflation and are buying bonds and dumping equities. Foremost among them are Pimco’s Bill Gross and Mohamed El Erian, David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, a $15 billion hedge fund, and “… the $42 billion Fortress Investment Group LLC, the $1.2 billion New York hedge fund Argonaut Capital Management, [...]