Very Different Assets, the Russell 2000 and Muni Bonds, Both Look Overvalued

Things have come to a pretty pass.  The romances are going flat…

Let’s start with munis.  It’s pretty simple.  Two Septembers ago, I wrote a post titled Gold on Hold; The New Play May Be in Munis.  This was done in the context of recession worries, and was in the context of a well-documented and [...]


Jeremy Grantham Finds U.S. Stocks and Bonds Equally Unattractive, Likes International; One More Move Down Left for Rates?

GMO has now made its famous 7-year asset return forecasts visible on its website; previously they would email them freely to registered recipients.  They, primarily Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder, actually have quite a good record, though past performance may not correlate with future performance.  LINK.

While there is no way for yours truly to have [...]


Enemy Action in Munis

Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times, it’s enemy action.

—Auric Goldfinger, quote from Goldfinger (1959)

Leaving aside Vallejo’s bankruptcy of a while ago, municipal bond investors have been hit with a rat a tat tat of three California municipal bankruptcies in short order.  Stockton, Mammoth Lakes, then San Bernardino.  [...]


Which Performed Best Over The Past 15 Years: Zeros/Munis Or Stocks?

Evidence of How Difficult It Is to Garner Excess Returns in the Stock Market

In January 1995, the Republicans took over Congress for the first time in, almost, forever. Quickly a form of gridlock took place that helped the stock market levitate. The R’s wouldn’t let President Clinton spend, and he wouldn’t let them cut [...]