Things have come to a pretty pass. The advance may be growing flat. I say stocks are risky. But they say that’s old hat. Goodness knows what the end will be… (Apologies to George and Ira Gershwin.)
Before Rupert Murdoch’s organization took over the WSJ and Barron’s, the latter used to be a great source [...]
I’m not a downer all the time. I try to go where the data leads, in a risk-averse manner. If it keeps pointing in the same direction, so be it.
When I first began writing on this website in August 2010, I argued against the prevailing gloom. Recovery Summer as predicted by the advocates of Keynesian stimulus had [...]
I want to make a few points briefly.
First, if you haven’t, please read Dr. Davis’ discussion of our economic data two posts below this (or click HERE). He documents that economic times remain difficult, in line with the Gallup.com polling data I have frequently referred to. He also points out how difficult it is to [...]
Momentum, liquidity, leverage, hope, etc. all move markets for variable lengths of time but ultimately value outs. One of the fundamentalists who I follow is the economist Andrew Smithers, who compiles and updates two measures of stock market value. He has now updated them based on Fed data through 12/13/11. At that time, his calculation [...]
This is a long post about stocks and the economy. I hope you find it worth the effort to read it.
If there’s any doubt about the strength of economic expansions, on trend, in the United States, in the past half-century, the linked 52-year chart from the Philly Fed may help settle the issue: [...]
I have frequently referred to a chart produced by a British analyst, Andrew Smithers (then click on “q and FAQs”,) who brilliantly (fortuitously) published a book in March 2000 proclaiming stocks to be in the greatest bubble in history- the very month that the NASDAQ peaked over 5100. Every three months, he updates graphically and [...]
The talking heads and promoters are mostly saying that either there will be no new recession any time soon and/or the stock market is pricing one in.
Time will tell on the first point. On the second one, an argument that is used repeatedly is that the average price-earnings ratio of the U. S. stock [...]