Recession Forecast | The Daily Capitalist

ECRI’s Achuthan: “We’re Already In A Recession”

Once again ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan discusses his negative forecast with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene. Now he says we are already in recession. This is a very interesting observation because he says it’s more than just output, but things like unemployment, spending, and income. While the common definition of a recession is two negative quarters of GDP, [...]

OECD Leading Indicators: Down

I almost hate to keep broadcasting bad news, but as I keep saying, we aren’t making this up. This data, actually almost all data coming in right now, backs up our forecast of stagnation-to-decline.

The OECD’s index of leading indicators for the 33+ OECD members all point downward. It fell 0.5 point in August, the fifth [...]

Deutsche Bank: Growth Recession Ahead

From Deutsche Bank, DB Research:

In DB’s new world outlook we expect the global economy to continue to struggle, with growth projected to remain moderately below trend and unemployment drifting upward through next year. We see GDP declining in the euro area over the next two quarters, expanding only sluggishly in the US, recovering from tsunami-depressed [...]

ECRI Forecasts The Coming Recession

DoctoRx’s favorite forecaster, other than the Daily Capitalist, Economic Cycle Research Institute called a “new recession” last week for its clients. According to the Doc, they have an excellent track record (see the graphic, below). Lakshman Achuthan said today:

“The U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession,” Achuthan, the group’s chief operations officer in New York, [...]