The Most Important Thing Stock Market Investors Have to Fear Is the Lack of Fear Itself

Things have come to a pretty pass.  The advance may be growing flat.  I say stocks are risky.  But they say that’s old hat.  Goodness knows what the end will be…  (Apologies to George and Ira Gershwin.)

Before Rupert Murdoch’s organization took over the WSJ and Barron’s, the latter used to be a great source [...]


What Next for the Markets?

In a recent post, I presented evidence that there is in many circles a great deal of optimism about the future for the U.S. economy.  Evidence for the extent of this optimism continues to accumulate, and not only for the U.S. reports with a headline that is a bit ironic, in that 18 months [...]


Overoptimism in Fed Manufacturing Surveys Correlates with the Post-Millenium Struggles of Stocks

 I’ve started to think that one of the reasons that the stock market has underperformed such other asset classes as bonds and precious metals over the past decade relates to little more than overoptimism.  There is evidence that this may still be continuing, despite the Great Recession and the current spate of gloomy headlines on such [...]


Economic Trends Lead Me to Continue to Accentuate the Negative

About two months ago, on April 3, I posted Reinhart and Rogoff Fight the Fed, in which I said:

…the permissive financial environment of the past few years in which the different assets of bonds, stocks, and gold all appreciate in nominal terms.  This in fact is what happened both in yesterday’s trading (and then prices [...]


Are U.S. Stocks “Scared Enough” Yet?

I want to make a few points briefly. 

First, if you haven’t, please read Dr. Davis’ discussion of our economic data two posts below this (or click HERE).  He documents that economic times remain difficult, in line with the polling data I have frequently referred to.  He also points out how difficult it is to [...]