The Establishment’s Holiday Message To Investors: You Suffer from Post-Traumatic Stress Dysfunction If You Don’t Put Almost All Your Money In The Stock Market

Apologies for hitting an old theme, but when I saw that RealClearMarkets had picked up a article which had already caught my eye as being very strange to be its lead, it appeared comment-worthy (LINK).  Herewith, a brief screed.  The title encapsulates the source of the irritation:

Americans Miss $200 Billion Abandoning Stocks

The title [...]


More Hints That QE Will Not Be Unwound Any Time Soon; Implications May Continue To Be Bullish For Treasury Bond Prices

The Fed is hinting that quantitative easing is here to stay:  there may be no unwinding of its expanding balance sheet in 2015. reports (LINK):

A decision by the Federal Reserve to expand its bond buying next week is likely to prompt policy makers to rewrite their 18-month old blueprint for an exit from record [...]


Investors Remain Optimistic in the Face of Declining Stock Market Prices

Last weekend, I said that risk assets were getting frothy, and showed that speculation was rampant in several financial sectors.  I also pointed out that essentially the entirety of the total return to investors for several years, and perhaps for several decades, might be able to be explained by the appreciation in price (decline in [...]


The Japan Syndrome

Before taking a multi-week break with family in which I intend to post only for major market action, it’s time for some review.  The macro theme in the U.S. economy and financial markets strikes me as just what I stated in one of my first blogs.  This is what I wrote on January 9, 2009 [...]


Update on Europe

I found this on the Guardian (UK’s) live blog.  I think it is a key point to consider re the spreading European recession and attendant debt mess:

Chiara Albanese@chiaraalbanese

Lombard Odier: “Germany is simply too small to save the Eurozone”. All set for Thursday.

Here’s a brief Greek tragedy update:  LINK.

And the news gets [...]


Is the U.S. Stock Market Three-Peating Its Way To Yet Another Summer Downturn?

Three months ago, I posted The Fed Three-Peats, in which I led with:

Oops!  They’ve done it again.  Maybe.

Here’s the evidence that the Fed aborted a mini-recession with Operation Twist, which in association with enlarging its balance sheet by reinvesting dividends from its mortgage-backed securities portfolio was essentially the QE 3 that Jeff Harding [...]


Gary Shilling Forecasts Recession

This interview with economist Gary Shilling reflects closely our thinking here at the Daily Capitalist: we are heading for economic slowdown, stocks are overvalued, and the dollar and Treasurys (30-year) are headed higher (30-year below 3% yield). This interview is from Bloomberg Television’s Adam Johnson and Stephanie Ruhle, on the “Street Smart” program. Shilling is [...]


Liquidity Traps, Unemployment, and the Future of U.S. Equity Markets

In the spring of 2003 then-Fed Governor Ben Bernanke travelled to Tokyo as the guest of the Bank of Japan’s Tokiko Shimizu, who arranged meetings for him with the then newly-independent BoJ, as well as the Ministry of Finance and Financial Services Agency (Japan’s analogs to the U.S. Treasury and SEC, respectively). During his visit [...]


Shaming the Non-Stock Buyer

Just when one might have thought one had seen all the pro-bull market techniques used by the mass media, one finds another.  The AP is out on Yahoo’s Finance section with quite the headline:  Why Are Americans Avoiding Stocks? Ask a Shrink.  They are not quite saying people who are afraid of the stock market [...]


DocComment: Most Dangerous Headline of the Young Week

Yahoo has reported on the day’s stock market activity, in which the averages opened down and trended upward but still closed down.  Here is how it described the day’s activity:  ”Wall Street ends off lows, suggesting resilience”.

Uh oh.  

“Resilience” is good when it occurs quietly, such as with a stock or asset class [...]


Updating Smithers: Continued Caution for Stock Bulls

I have frequently referred to a chart produced by a British analyst, Andrew Smithers (then click on “q and FAQs”,) who brilliantly (fortuitously) published a book in March 2000 proclaiming stocks to be in the greatest bubble in history- the very month that the NASDAQ peaked over 5100.  Every three months, he updates graphically and [...]