Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Frying Pan

“The skill of the sports player is not the result of superior knowledge of the future, but of an ability to employ and execute good strategies for making decisions in a complex and changing world. The same qualities are characteristic of the successful executive. Managers who know the future are more [...]


Today’s Employment Report Changes Little

The BLS has reported the employment report for November (LINK).  The markets are taking this bullishly, as the jobs gains were modestly above consensus.  There are flies in that ointment; the report looks mostly like a “nothingburger”.  

Once again, the 25-54 age groups, and sub-groups within that age range, showed no job growth year [...]


Record Low U.S. Birth Rate Parallels Japan

Fewer babies born per capita are pushing the U.S. toward zero population growth.  This began happening in Japan around the time it moved from an era of rising prices to one of price stability or very mild deflation, despite repeated “quantitative easing” by the Bank of Japan.  Bloomberg reports (LINK):

Recession Left Baby Bust as [...]


“Risk On” and “Risk Off” Are Different Now

Three days ago I put up a post arguing for a “risk off” portfolio positioning.  This extends that thinking.

It used to be simple:  risk off was Treasurys, risk on was stocks and commodities.  Last summer saw mind-numbing volatility in that manner, and a quick drop in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) from 85 in July to [...]


Greece Still Getting Worse

We all want to be optimistic about matters that affect us, or our fellow men, but one wonders where the breaking point is in Greece.  Witness this from ekathimerini, and please note the last, bolded, line:

All categories of state revenues headed south in the first 11 months of the year, with the biggest problem [...]


Clash Of The Titans: Marc Faber vs. Jim Rogers

This interesting article was published a few days ago on BusinessIntelligence-Middle East on the differing views of investment gurus Marc Faber and Jim Rogers. I think you will enjoy their points. Both live in Asia: Rogers in Singapore and Faber in Chiang Mai. Tell me who you think is right.

 Investment gurus Jim Rogers [...]


Investment Posture Summarized: Times Past and Forward-Looking

Before commenting on the future, I want to summarize my year at The Daily Capitalist.  Beginning nearly I year ago, with the stock and precious metals markets testing their early-midsummer lows, I called for the following “risk-on” trades:  long gold, silver, foreign currencies, AAPL, and large multinationals with good fundamentals such as McDonald’s.

Then on May [...]


Which Performed Best Over The Past 15 Years: Zeros/Munis Or Stocks?

Evidence of How Difficult It Is to Garner Excess Returns in the Stock Market

In January 1995, the Republicans took over Congress for the first time in, almost, forever. Quickly a form of gridlock took place that helped the stock market levitate. The R’s wouldn’t let President Clinton spend, and he wouldn’t let them cut [...]


Safety First

In case you have not noticed, the evolving horrors in Japan have merged with the disorder in the Mideast and cycles in the U.S. (probable peaking of economic momentum) to cause a decline in numerous asset prices lately. In what strikes me as not a coincidence, the 10 and 30 year Treasury bonds have peaked in [...]


Selling The Rebound

Sir Isaac Newton posited that every action has an equal and opposite reaction.

In markets, when an action has an opposite but unequal reaction, that often points to a trend, especially when a trend is due to be interrupted or change for good.

On some truly ugly macro news yesterday, stocks were weak yesterday.  Surging [...]


Are Stocks Finally A “Buy”?

Yes, I believe that some finally are.

This is written by someone who sold virtually all stocks at Dow 13,000 in August-September 2007 with such confidence that even when the market went up 7-8% in the fall, had no indecision and argued with friends and relatives to get out when the getting was good.  Except [...]