There is no much more we can add to today’s events other than what we have already been saying for months about the economy and the markets. We still think the market is overvalued, we still think there is a lot of risk in stocks, we still think the play is in gold, gold miners, and Treasurys, we still think [...]
In both 1960 and 1980, the American people were enduring their fourth recession in about 12 years. Each time they elected as President a man who pledged to get the economy moving again. Each had a program of tax cuts, Federal deficits, debt monetization, and increased military spending. In JFK’s case, his Keynesian economists followed [...]
Based on certain precedents, we may just have top-ticked the long bond, or may be within months of a top to be followed by a major drop in long rates.
As of Friday’s close, the spread between the 2-year bond (note) and the 30-year bond’s yields were about equal to the post-1980 highs seen [...]
Just as it can be more properly argued that it is a market of stocks rather than a stock market, certain parts of the bond market can be bubbly and others be reasonable buys. An obvious example came in the wake of the Lehman-AIG market disruption, where the 30-year Treasury yield collapsed to 2.6% just [...]
Gallup’s continuous polling is showing a continuing stagnation with a downward trend in discretionary consumer spending.
In this context, the buoyancy of many consumer stocks makes little sense. There’s a difference between optimism and investing based on hope against the facts. When even a semi-free market has essentially no value placed on money for as [...]
Yes, I believe that some finally are.
This is written by someone who sold virtually all stocks at Dow 13,000 in August-September 2007 with such confidence that even when the market went up 7-8% in the fall, had no indecision and argued with friends and relatives to get out when the getting was good. Except [...]