The Most Important Thing Stock Market Investors Have to Fear Is the Lack of Fear Itself

Things have come to a pretty pass.  The advance may be growing flat.  I say stocks are risky.  But they say that’s old hat.  Goodness knows what the end will be…  (Apologies to George and Ira Gershwin.)

Before Rupert Murdoch’s organization took over the WSJ and Barron’s, the latter used to be a great source [...]


Investors Remain Optimistic in the Face of Declining Stock Market Prices

Last weekend, I said that risk assets were getting frothy, and showed that speculation was rampant in several financial sectors.  I also pointed out that essentially the entirety of the total return to investors for several years, and perhaps for several decades, might be able to be explained by the appreciation in price (decline in [...]


Looking Forward to the FOMC Meeting and Beyond: Speculations

Here’s a guess about what the Fed will say Wednesday following the FOMC meeting.  There is no justification for another formal QE program, so I would be very surprised if one were announced (rather than hinted about).  The two main reasons for this view is that the major crisis is in Europe, and the U.S. Federal [...]


Too Much Complacency in the Stock Market

I picked up two vibes today during the midst of the stock market downtrend that made me add to my short positions and, with more firepower, add to my Treasury holdings

Here we were past midday, down over 1.5% on the Dow and SPY, with clear global deceleration in economic activity, a highly valued stock [...]