Yotai Gap Continues to Enlarge as Corporations Risk Their Balance Sheets To Shore Up Stock Prices

As one of the few American chroniclers of the still-obscure “yotai gap” phenomenon that has been present in Japan for a number of years, I read with interest a ZH post today that discusses it without using the term (LINK).  Here is a graph lifted from that post (click on chart to enlarge):

I [...]


Germany’s Incomplete Economic Recovery Supports the Bond Bull Market

Germany’s national economic statistical repository provides an interesting set of graphs that correlate with the collapsing interest rate structure in that country.  Two-year bunds now yield a negative 0.08% per year.  The 10-year bund yields 1.27%, down from over 2.1% only one year ago.   No wonder that with the U.S. interest rate structure so [...]


JPM’s Whale of a Problem and Futures Market Scandals May Help Lead to Negative Rates on Bank Deposits

The Telegraph (U.K.) had a terse description of JPM’s Chief Investment Office that helped crystallize my thinking:

The bank stunned Wall Street when it disclosed that a series of bets made by the CIO on the health of major companies had triggered the . The CIO’s job is to invest deposits that the bank has yet [...]


More Recessionary Market Signs

As  regular Daily Capitalist readers know, I have been observing a topping process for the U.S. stock market for a few months now.  Last fall, near the market bottom in late September, I suggested that despite their outperformance in the prior months,  tax-free municipal bonds looked pretty attractive.  That piece was titled Gold on Hold; [...]


Another Post-Depression Echo as U.S. Banks Become the New Japan and China and Buy Lots More Treasurys

Just as happened after WW II and for many years, the U.S. banking system is ramping up its holdings of Treasurys.  Bloomberg reports:

U.S. banks bought more government and related debt in the first two months of 2012 than they did in all of last year, an endorsement of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s [...]


Why ZIRP Became Inevitable and Why It May Be With Us a Long Time

Last year, on June 26, when the 10-year Treasury traded at 2.87%, already far down in yield from its peak, I indicated that the yield could go a lot lower because the U.S. was developing a “yotai gap” in Japanese fashion.  The post was titled Yotai Gap to Provide Fuel to the Treasury Bond Bull?  [...]


Updating Smithers: Continued Caution for Stock Bulls

I have frequently referred to a chart produced by a British analyst, Andrew Smithers (then click on “q and FAQs”,) who brilliantly (fortuitously) published a book in March 2000 proclaiming stocks to be in the greatest bubble in history- the very month that the NASDAQ peaked over 5100.  Every three months, he updates graphically and [...]


Investment Posture Summarized: Times Past and Forward-Looking

Before commenting on the future, I want to summarize my year at The Daily Capitalist.  Beginning nearly I year ago, with the stock and precious metals markets testing their early-midsummer lows, I called for the following “risk-on” trades:  long gold, silver, foreign currencies, AAPL, and large multinationals with good fundamentals such as McDonald’s.

Then on May [...]


Yotai Gap to Provide Fuel to the Treasury Bond Bull?

Bloomberg.com reports on one way in which the US financial system is fundamentally going Japanese:  both countries have a yotai gap.

What, you ask is a yotai gap?  Per Bloomberg: